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PLS Group vs Liontown shares: Which ASX lithium miner could double?
Australia's lithium sector is brimming with opportunity — and volatility. Today I'm weighing up PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) and Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR), two names regularly mentioned by investors looking for the next big mover. If, like me, you're wondering which could double from here over the next five years, here's what the numbers suggest.
The case for PLS Group
PLS Group Ltd, formerly known as Pilbara Minerals, is a leading Australian lithium and tantalum producer. Its core asset is the Pilgangoora Lithium-Tantalum Project in WA's Pilbara, considered among the world's biggest hard-rock lithium resources. The company has expanded its global footprint, adding Brazil's Colina lithium project through acquisition, giving it exposure to South American lithium as well as the Australian heartland.
What grabs my attention most about PLS Group right now:
- Market cap of $9.16 billion makes it a major player, with significant project scale.
- P/E ratio of 16.23, a relatively moderate multiple for a growth-linked resources stock.
- Offers a 1.91% dividend yield, fully franked, showcasing ability (for now) to return capital to shareholders alongside growth.
- Reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.161, though keep in mind commodity producers' profits can swing sharply year to year.
PLS shareholders have enjoyed some chunky dividends recently — $0.14 (final) and $0.11 (interim) in 2023 — and both were fully franked according to the company's most recent profile.
The case for Liontown
Liontown is another rising lithium name with a focus on Tier-1 WA projects. Its showcase is the Kathleen Valley lithium mine, which started production in 2024 and is aiming for world-class output with a 100% underground transition. The company also owns the Buldania lithium project and an early-stage base metals and gold play at Moora.
Here's what stands out to me about Liontown now:
- Market cap sits at $2.17 billion — much lighter than PLS but still a substantial exposure to the lithium cycle.
- P/E ratio of 20.65 puts it above PLS, reflecting the earlier growth stage, but also potentially pricing in more future expansion.
- No dividend history or yield to speak of — not surprising for a miner fresh into production, as cash is usually reinvested in ramping up operations.
- EPS is $0.031, showing profit is emerging (versus the pre-production years), but still in early days.
Valuation comparison
Here's how the valuation metrics stack up:
| Metric | PLS Group | Liontown |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $9.16 billion | $2.17 billion |
| P/E Ratio | 16.23 | 20.65 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.91% (100% franked) | 0.00% |
| EPS | $0.161 | $0.031 |
Note: PLS Group's reported P/E and EPS numbers align. Liontown's P/E may use a different profit measure than the EPS shown, which can happen in resources as operational phases shift.
PLS Group trades on a lower P/E and pays a dividend, suggesting a more mature operation. Liontown's higher P/E, with no yield yet, reflects a business earlier in its growth arc — the market likely expects more rapid expansion from it, but that's coupled with higher risk until production settles.
Recent share price momentum
Comparing recent share price performance up to 26 October 2026:
- PLS Group closed at $2.84, rising 8.4% for the day but still standing at a year-to-date return of -36.7%.
- Liontown closed at $0.68, up 6.3% that day, but with a heavier YTD loss of -59.4%.
Both companies surged on the last trading day shown, but both are well below their levels at the start of 2026. PLS has held its ground better over the year, perhaps reflecting its more established position and broader portfolio.
Which is the better buy?
If my goal is to pick the lithium miner more likely to double in five years, I'm weighing up upside against risk.
PLS Group is bigger, pays dividends, and runs at a lower P/E. That tells me the market sees it as the safer, more mature exposure — likely to weather lithium price swings a bit better, and throwing off some cash even in tough years. However, its larger size and already-established operations might limit its ability to multiply if the sector booms again.
Liontown, meanwhile, is at an earlier stage of its lifecycle. Its valuation isn't exactly "dirt cheap" on current earnings, but its Kathleen Valley project could be a step change for output and cash flow once it's fully up and running. The lack of a dividend is a negative for income seekers, but consistent with growth companies in ramp-up mode.
My pick would be Liontown if what I want is "double-my-money" potential in a lithium recovery. It's riskier — as the deeper YTD share price drop shows — but earlier-stage miners often have the most to gain from production ramp-ups and sector re-ratings. PLS is likely the steadier option, but for high-octane growth over five years, I'd lean toward Liontown, provided I'm comfortable with volatility and short-term chops.
