3 reasons I'd buy BHP shares before the end of October

The experts are mostly neutral on the shares, I think otherwise.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are climbing higher again in Tuesday morning trade.

At the time of writing, the mining giant's share price is up around 2% to $56.75 a piece. Today's increase follows a roughly 1% rise at the close of the market on Monday afternoon.

The increases might be small, but they're a welcome reprieve for investors after the shares tumbled around 19% from an all-time high in late August to Friday last week.

BHP shares are still trading around 24% higher year-to-date and 30% higher than 12 months ago at the time of writing.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is around 1% higher for the year-to-date. This index is now also 3% below its level 12 months ago, at the time of writing.

The experts are mostly neutral on BHP shares, with some concerns that they're currently trading around fair value.

But I see three compelling reasons I'd add more BHP shares to my portfolio before the end of the week.

A boy is about to rocket from a copper-coloured field of hay into the sky.

Image source: Getty Images

1. BHP has a major milestone coming up

BHP is scheduled to deliver a full strategy update and site-visit update on expansion plans for its Olympic Dam Block Cave in South Australia in late November.

Last week, the miner announced its September 2026 quarter operational review. This included the declaration of the new maiden block-cave mineral resource of 10.73 billion tonnes grading 0.59% copper at its Olympic Dam Copper Operations.

The block-cave resource is in the early stages of assessment. But it adds a potentially significant underground mining option to boost BHP's broader copper production plans.

At its site visit next month, BHP has said it will provide further details regarding its strategy. 

The update is highly anticipated by investors because management will detail how it plans to undertake its overall copper expansion in South Australia. 

I anticipate a rally in interest in BHP shares as investors take note of the potential this expansion plan offers for company growth. 

2. The company is aggressively pivoting towards copper

My second point follows on from the one above.

The upcoming update is just part of the miner's strategy to redirect its business towards copper exposure and away from lower-margin assets like iron ore. 

BHP is already the world's largest copper miner, and its copper business now generates over half of its underlying EBITDA. 

BHP said copper demand is expected to grow from around 34 million tonnes per year in 2026, up to around 50 million tonnes by 2050. 

This will be driven by traditional growth in home building, electrical equipment and household appliances. But there is also expected to be a boom in demand from electric vehicles, renewables, AI, and data centres.

BHP said it anticipates that copper demand associated with investment in data centres could grow around sixfold between 2024 and 2050. That's an increase of around 3 million tonnes per annum.

And the miner is now positioning itself to snap up a large share of the market.

3. BHP pays an attractive dividend

Another reason I'd look to buy more BHP shares this week is the attractive passive income. 

The blue-chip major is currently the largest stock on the ASX by market capitalisation. It also has a consistently strong operational performance.

The miner's strong operational history and diversified commodity exposure also mean it has a long record of paying consistent, reliable, fully franked dividends to its shareholders.

BHP declared a total fully franked FY26 dividend of US$1.72 per share (equivalent to A$2.4184) in August. This includes a US$0.73 interim and a US$0.99 final dividend. 

Based on the current share price, that translates to a dividend yield of around 4.4%.

For FY27, BHP is expected to pay US$1.93 (A$2.70) to shareholders in FY27. At the time of writing, that implies a forward dividend yield of around 4.8%.

That's a decent payout for a high-quality stock.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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