Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB) shares are firmly in the line of fire. The ASX financial stock slipped another 1% on Wednesday to $69.31, extending a rough run that's seen it fall 9% over the past month, 28% year to date, and a brutal 35% over the past 12 months.
For a stock once treated as an ASX tech darling, that's a stunning reversal. So what's actually driving the sell-off?
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The real issue: flows are slowing
Here's the crux of it. Investors are growing nervous about slowing net flows. In FY26, net inflows fell 4% year-on-year to $18.9 billion. That might not sound like a disaster, but for a stock priced for extremely high growth, any hint of deceleration is enough to trigger a serious re-rating.
The market's question is simple but brutal: can Hub24 keep growing at the pace investors have paid up for? When a stock trades on lofty multiples built around rapid expansion, like Hub24 shares, even a modest slowdown can wipe out a huge chunk of the share price. And that's exactly what's playing out here.
Add in a broader wobble across the tech sector with investors reassessing valuations and grappling with how AI could reshape competitive dynamics, and growth stocks like Hub24 have been caught in the crossfire.
Markets tend to sell first and ask questions later, and even high-quality names can get dragged down in a broad de-rating cycle.
The numbers tell a different story
Strip away the flow concerns, and Hub24's operational performance still looks genuinely strong. FY2026 delivered record results: group underlying EBITDA rose 30% to $211.4 million, underlying NPAT climbed 40% to $137.3 million, and total revenue grew 23% to $501.1 million.
This ASX tech stock continues to benefit from structural growth as more financial advisers adopt its platform. More than 5,200 advisers now use Hub24. One industry trend in particular is working in its favour: "platform monogamy," where advisers consolidate client assets onto a single provider instead of spreading them across multiple systems.
That shift could help offset some of the flow slowdown as advisers prioritise efficiency, integration and scale.
A hidden growth engine
There's also a less obvious driver worth watching: operating leverage. Platform businesses like Hub24 often see this play out strongly — once fixed costs are covered, additional funds flowing onto the platform can generate higher incremental margins.
That means earnings growth can outpace revenue growth over time, even if net inflows moderate from their previous blistering pace.
Brokers aren't buying the pessimism
Analysts, for their part, seem largely unfazed. According to TradingView data, 14 of 18 brokers currently rate Hub24 a buy or strong buy. The average price target sits at $97.81, implying roughly 41% upside from current levels.
The most bullish target stands at $126, while the lowest sits at $71.40, still above today's price. Citi has a buy rating with a $93.50 target, and RBC Capital sits at $91.00, pointing to roughly 30% upside.
