Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB) shares are edging higher on Thursday, but investors probably won't be celebrating just yet.
The Hub24 share price is up 0.26% to $70.38 at the time of writing, but that barely makes a dent in the recent losses.
The shares have fallen almost 20% in the past month and around 27% in 2026.
They are now trading only slightly above their 52-week low of $68.70 and more than 42% below the $122.03 high.
So, has the sell-off gone too far?
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Why have Hub24 shares fallen so much?
The sell-off looks pretty harsh when you look at Hub24's latest financial results.
FY26 revenue rose 23% to $501.1 million, while underlying EBITDA climbed 30% to $211.4 million. Underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) increased 40% to $137.3 million.
Platform funds under administration (FUA) reached $139.5 billion, up 24%, while total FUA grew to $164.3 billion.
Hub24's platform market share increased from 8.6% to 9.9%, while active advisers rose 11% to 5,649.
While those were solid numbers, what seems to be worrying investors more is the slowdown in inflows heading into FY27.
The company said outflows from discretionary IDPS accounts were still high in August, although superannuation flows were holding up better.
If that weakness hangs around, Hub24 may find it harder to keep FUA growing at the same pace.
What are the brokers saying?
Brokers are still much more positive on Hub24 shares after the recent drop.
According to TipRanks, the average 12-month price target from 13 ranked analysts is $97.18. From the current price of $70.38, that points to potential upside of around 38%.
Most of the targets are sitting in the $90s. Citi has a target of $93.50, Jefferies is at $93.75, Morgans is at $92, RBC Capital has $91, and JPMorgan is at $98.
Jarden has the highest target shown at $101, while Bell Potter is a little more cautious with a $90 target and a hold rating.
Why $70 has my attention
After falling almost 20% in a month, Hub24 shares are starting to look a lot more interesting around these levels.
The stock is still trading on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 48, so I wouldn't call it cheap. And if inflows stay weak, that could put more pressure on the valuation.
Nonetheless, Hub24 is still growing earnings, and winning market share.
Management is also targeting Platform FUA of $186 billion to $200 billion by FY28, excluding PARS.
At around $70, I think the risk-reward looks much better than it did above $120.
The next big update comes on 20 October, when Hub24 releases its first-quarter results.
