One of the most influential stories of 2026 has been surging oil prices.
Crude oil has gone past US$107 per barrel this week after Saudi Arabia closed its east-west oil pipeline following a drone attack.
A new report from VanEck has reinforced that if oil stays near these levels, the consequences will reach much further than the energy sector.
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What is going on with oil prices?
Oil prices are elevated in 2026 largely because the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted production and shipping.
Tight inventories and limited spare capacity have amplified the impact of these disruptions. This is leaving the global market unusually sensitive to further supply shocks.
This has also influenced the RBA's decision to hike interest rates throughout the year in an attempt to cool inflation.
According to VanEck, if oil, which is already up more than 76% this year, remains at these levels and trimmed mean inflation stays above 3%, the case for further rate rises will be hard to dismiss.
A prolonged oil shock could leave a second increase in play, adding pressure to household spending and growth-oriented equity valuations.
Higher oil prices can also support the earnings of energy producers and refiners, creating opportunities for portfolios positioned to benefit.
Where is the upside?
These economic factors have led to a surge in 2026 for ASX energy stocks.
In fact, the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) is up 32% year to date.
According to VanEck, while higher oil prices pose a challenge for the wider economy, investors are exposed to the other side of the story: favourable industry conditions can produce substantial returns.
From the beginning of 2026 to the end of August, global oil refiners returned around 50% and Australian oil refiner Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) gained close to 40%.
International equities returned about 5% over the same period.
These gains do not mean every energy company will benefit to the same extent. However, they do show the size of the opportunity when stronger industry conditions flow through to company earnings.
An ASX ETF to consider
Higher oil prices remain a threat to inflation, interest rates, and household spending.
But they could also create an earnings tailwind for selected Australian energy companies.
One ASX ETF that could be a buy in this market is the VanEck Australian Resources ETF (ASX: MVR).
It provides a strong resources and energy tilt.
As of August 2026, oil and gas represented 19.2% of the fund. This is much higher compared with 11.4% of the S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index (ASX: XJR).
The structure of the fund also caps each company at 8% at rebalance, preventing one company, such as BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), from dominating the portfolio.
As a result of the cap, the weight released from BHP is spread across energy producers, gold miners, critical minerals companies, and other parts of the resources sector.
That gives investors more exposure to companies that may benefit from higher oil prices without making the entire allocation dependent on one commodity or company.
Foolish takeaway
Surging oil prices are putting upward pressure on inflation and interest rates, but they are also boosting energy-sector earnings.
This potentially benefits resource-focused investments such as the VanEck Australian Resources ETF.
