There aren't too many economic indicators out there right now that indicate that the health of the global economy is tip-top. Inflation across the world remains elevated, oil prices are back over US$100 a barrel, and government debt, particularly in the United States, continues to balloon at an arguably unsustainable rate. I'm not saying that all of this means a recession is on the horizon. But it does, at least in my view, indicate that investors should keep their wits about them over (at least) the rest of 2026.
If you are an investor who is worried about a recession, you might want to focus your investing energy on ASX shares that arguably thrive in all kinds of economic weather. That doesn't mean that these ASX shares won't see potentially severe price impacts if there is a recession or stock market crash, of course. But it does mean that the underlying fundamentals of these companies would be relatively unaffected if the worst were to happen.
So with that in mind, here are two ASX shares whose earnings should prove to be a veritable fortress if the global economic weather does take a turn for the worse.
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2 ASX shares to ride out a recession
First up, we have ASX 200 telco Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS). Telstra is a company we all know and may or may not love. What we can say with certainty is that Telstra continues to enjoy a status as Australia's largest and most popular telco. The company boasts what is almost universally regarded as the best mobile network in the country. That's a moat that allows Telstra to keep many customers in-house and competitors at bay.
The beauty of Telstra's business model is that it is highly resistant to recessions, inflation, and other economic maladies. Most of us would give up a lot before our mobile phones and internet connections if times got tougher. Telstra's earnings were unaffected by the COVID recession, and I expect them to emerge from the next economic downturn, whenever that may occur, largely unscathed.
Next, let's talk about Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL). Coles is another stock we'd all know well. It is the second-largest supermarket chain operator in the country, and also owns the Liquorland bottle shop chain. Coles shares many of the same attributes as Telstra. It is highly defensive (we all need to eat, drink, and stock our households), for one. For another, it is resistant to inflation, given it is one of the lowest-cost providers of those consumer staples on the market.
As such, I wouldn't expect to see much in the way of earnings impacts if bad economic weather hits the Australian economy. Coles' hefty, fully-franked dividend (which the company has increased every year since 2018) provides some further certainty to investors.
