It seems to be going from bad to worse for WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares.
The ASX tech stock has fallen 10% in five trading days, 20% over the past month, 52% year to date and 65% over 12 months. At $32.69, it is edging back towards its June low of $28.76 and sits miles below its 52-week high of $99.53.
So, after such a brutal sell-off, do brokers think WiseTech shares have fallen too far?
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WiseTech still has something to prove
For much of August, it looked like WiseTech shares might finally be turning a corner.
The stock jumped 25% during the first three weeks of the month, reaching $45.47 on 25 August. Then came the FY26 result, and the recovery quickly ran out of steam.
Since reporting, shares have plunged around 20%, taking them a long way from the $100-plus levels seen just a year ago.
Yet the numbers weren't exactly disastrous.
WiseTech delivered a 46% increase in EBITDA to US$558.4 million for FY26. While that landed within management's US$550 million to US$585 million guidance range, it came slightly below the market's US$569.5 million forecast.
Looking ahead, management expects FY27 revenue to grow 6% to 10%, reaching US$1.48 billion to US$1.54 billion. Underlying EBITDA is forecast to increase 12% to 21%, with margins expanding to between 49% and 51%.
A global leader with a credibility problem
The collapse in WiseTech shares isn't simply a story about deteriorating demand.
Its CargoWise platform remains a major logistics software system used by the world's top 25 freight forwarders, including Toll and DHL.
That gives WiseTech exposure to powerful long-term trends, including the digitalisation of global trade and the increasing complexity of international supply chains.
The bigger problems have been investor confidence, governance concerns and regulatory issues.
That's why FY27 execution could be crucial. If WiseTech can deliver stronger growth and expanding margins while rebuilding investor trust, the current share price could eventually look like an opportunity.
What do brokers think?
Several brokers remain firmly bullish.
Morgans has retained its buy rating with a $62.50 price target, while Morgan Stanley has maintained its buy rating and $70 target. From $32.69, those targets imply potential upside of around 91% and 114%, respectively.
Bell Potter also retains a buy rating, despite cutting its target from $71.75 to $65. Citi lifted its target from $55.05 to $58.75, while UBS reduced its target from $65 to $56 but retained its buy recommendation.
Macquarie is also positive, with an outperform rating and $48.20 target.
However, not everyone is convinced. Jefferies has downgraded WiseTech shares to hold with a $45 target, while JPMorgan also has a hold rating and $40 target.
At $32.69, that enormous spread tells investors something important: the market remains deeply divided.
The bull case is that WiseTech can turn its strong competitive position into faster growth and expanding margins. The bear case is that investor concerns and slower near-term growth warrant a permanently lower valuation.
For now, brokers appear considerably more optimistic than the share price suggests. But WiseTech will need to execute in FY27 before the bulls can claim victory.
