Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares have been on fire over the past year.
Recently trading for $173.18, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant have surged 51.3% in 12 months, smashing the 0.6% one-year gains posted by the benchmark index.
And that's not including the two fully franked dividends, totalling $6.70 a share, that Rio Tinto paid (or shortly will pay) over the full year.
If we add that back into the recent share price of $173.18, then the accumulated value of Rio Tinto shares has rocketed 57.2% in 12 months.
But with those kinds of outsized gains already in the bag, should I still buy the ASX mining stock today?
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Rio Tinto shares: Buy, hold or sell?
Morgans' Damien Nguyen recently ran his slide rule over the ASX 200 mining giant (courtesy of The Bull).
"Rio Tinto continues to generate strong cash flow from its world class iron ore operations, while building exposure to copper and lithium," Nguyen said.
"The company maintains a robust balance sheet and offers attractive shareholder returns, supported by low-cost assets," he added.
But amid concerns over the miner's heavy weighting towards iron ore and its strong run higher, Nguyen issues a hold recommendation on Rio Tinto shares.
He concluded:
However, iron ore remains the primary earnings driver, leaving profits exposed to movements in commodity prices and Chinese demand. Given this balance of quality and cyclical risk, we see Rio Tinto as fairly valued at recent levels.
What's the latest from the ASX 200 mining stock?
Rio Tinto shares were in sharp focus on 29 July following the release of the company's half year results (H1 2026).
Highlights included a 15% year on year increase in revenue to US$31.0 billion. And earnings surged 28%, with the miner reporting underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of US$14.8 billion.
On the bottom line, Rio Tinto reported a half year net profit of $6.7 billion, up 48.9% from H1 2025.
With profits surging, management declared a $3.029 per share fully franked interim dividend, up 36.4% from last year's interim payout.
The stock traded ex-dividend on 13 August. If you held shares on 12 August, you can expect that passive income to land in your bank account on 24 September.
"Our strong performance is underpinned by accelerating productivity across the business," Rio Tinto CEO Simon Trott said.
Rio Tinto shares closed up 3.7% on the day of the results announcement.
