Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) shares have been smashed over the past year, falling around 79%.
At approximately $4.70 today, investors are being offered a very different entry point to 12 months ago.
I think the sell-off has gone far enough to create an opportunity for long-term investors.
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The market is much bigger than Temple & Webster
Temple & Webster is Australia's largest pure-play online furniture and homewares retailer, but I think its current scale can disguise how much of the market remains available.
The company puts its addressable Australian furniture, homewares, and home improvement markets at around $40 billion. Earlier this year, management was still targeting $1 billion of annual revenue by FY28.
That gives some perspective on the runway ahead.
There is also a structural shift that could help Temple & Webster take more of that spending.
Only around 20% of Australian furniture and homewares sales were online based on the company's market analysis, compared with 35% in the US and 29% in the UK. Online penetration in home improvement was even lower at around 5% to 10%.
I do not think Australia needs to completely match either overseas market for Temple & Webster to benefit. Even a gradual shift online could move billions of dollars of spending towards the channel where it is already a leader.
There is more than furniture to pursue
I also like that the opportunity is no longer confined to sofas, dining tables, and homewares.
Home improvement has significantly expanded the market Temple & Webster can target, while the company has started testing its model in New Zealand. Its Australian business also benefits from an asset-light model where much of its range is shipped directly from suppliers.
That gives the ASX share several ways to become larger without needing the overall furniture market itself to suddenly boom.
For me, the long-term question is whether Temple & Webster can keep taking spending away from traditional stores as more people become comfortable furnishing their homes online.
I think it can.
Still not a cheap share
The 79% fall has not turned Temple & Webster into a conventional value stock.
At $4.70, consensus earnings per share forecasts of 13.6 cents in FY27 put it on a PE ratio of roughly 35 times forward earnings.
But analysts expect earnings to rise to 15.3 cents in FY28 and 20.6 cents in FY29. If that final forecast is achieved, today's price represents less than 23 times FY29 earnings.
That is much easier for me to accept when the business is still pursuing such a large market.
There are risks. Consumer spending can weaken, competition could increase, and the shift towards online furniture shopping may take longer than expected. But I believe this is priced into its shares following their sharp decline.
Foolish takeaway
A 79% decline gets my attention when the growth opportunity remains this substantial.
Temple & Webster still needs to deliver, and I would not call the shares cheap at around $4.70.
But with online penetration still relatively low and a huge market left to capture, I think the current price gives patient investors an attractive chance to back the business for the next several years.
