Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) has enjoyed a strong run over the past 12 months, with its shares now trading around $180.44.
That raises a question for investors looking beyond the recent momentum.
Would I still buy Rio Tinto shares with the intention of holding them for years?
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The valuation still looks reasonable
According to CommSec, analysts expect earnings per share of $12.07 in FY26 and $12.04 in FY27.
Those forecasts point to virtually no earnings growth over the next year. At the current share price, Rio Tinto is trading on a PE ratio of around 15 times forecast earnings in both years.
I think that remains a reasonable price for the quality and scale of the assets Rio Tinto owns.
Mining profits will always move around with commodity prices, so I would not expect earnings to always climb every year. I am more interested in whether the company is investing today in assets that can produce valuable commodities for decades. I think Rio Tinto is making progress on that front.
There is also a solid income component. Consensus forecasts estimate fully franked dividends of $6.63 per share in FY26 and $6.62 in FY27.
Again, there is little growth implied in those forecasts, but investors are still being paid while several major projects develop.
Copper could change the business over time
Copper is the part of Rio Tinto that makes me most positive about the longer-term outlook.
Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia is already ramping up strongly. Copper production from the operation increased 31% in the first half of 2026, and Rio Tinto says the ramp-up remains on schedule.
The scale it is heading towards is substantial. Rio Tinto expects the open pit and underground operations at Oyu Tolgoi to produce around 500,000 tonnes of copper annually on average between 2028 and 2036. The company expects it to become the world's fourth-largest copper mine by 2030.
For me, this is a good example of why the flat FY26 and FY27 earnings forecasts do not tell the whole story.
The investment case stretches much further than the next couple of financial years.
Rio Tinto is also progressing other potential copper projects, including Resolution in the US and Winu in Western Australia.
Demand should have plenty of support as more copper is required for electricity networks, renewable energy, industrial development, and other forms of electrification.
If Rio Tinto can bring more high-quality supply into that market, copper could become an increasingly important source of value for shareholders.
There is more happening across the portfolio
I also like that Rio Tinto has several major projects capable of changing its production base over time.
Oyu Tolgoi is one. Simandou is another, adding a new source of high-grade iron ore from Guinea. The company has also expanded substantially into lithium.
In the first half of 2026, copper, aluminium, and lithium together contributed more than half of Rio Tinto's underlying EBITDA.
That tells me the company is already becoming less dependent on any single commodity than investors may have traditionally associated with Rio Tinto.
Foolish takeaway
Yes, I think Rio Tinto shares remain a good buy and hold pick at around $180.44.
The near-term earnings forecasts are flat, and investors should always expect commodity prices to cause some volatility.
For me, the longer-term opportunity carries more weight. Around 15 times forecast earnings still looks reasonable, while Oyu Tolgoi and Rio Tinto's wider copper pipeline give the company a strong avenue for growth beyond FY27.
I would be comfortable buying the shares today and giving that opportunity several years to develop.
