BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have delivered some outsized gains over the past year.
In Monday afternoon trade, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant were changing hands for $67.41 apiece. That sees the share price up an impressive 56.3% in 12 months, smashing the 1.6% one-year returns posted by the benchmark index.
And we shouldn't leave out the two fully franked BHP dividends, totalling $2.431 a share, that BHP paid – or shortly will pay – to eligible stockholders.
The miner will pay out its final dividend of $1.392 on 23 September. BHP shares trade ex-dividend on 3 September. And with the company's profits up 9% year-on-year to AU$13.7 billion, that final payout is up 51.5% from the FY 2025 final BHP dividend.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
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BHP shares: Buy, hold or sell?
Red Leaf Securities' John Athanasiou recently ran his slide rule over the Aussie mining giant (courtesy of The Bull).
"This high-quality company offers exposure to global resources," he said.
Commenting on BHP's FY 2026 results, Athanasiou said, "The company posted attributable profit of US$9.8 billion in full year 2026, up 9% on the prior corresponding period. Revenue of US$58.8 billion was up 15%."
And Athanasiou sounded a bullish note on BHP's growing copper exposure.
"The company's copper portfolio is positioned to benefit from electrification, renewable infrastructure, power grid investment and data centre growth," he said.
Indeed, BHP shares have gotten support as the copper price has rocketed more than 69% over the last year, recently trading for US$14,216 per tonne.
That saw BHP report a 48% year on year increase in underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) from its copper division to US$18.2 billion, despite a 3% decline in copper production to 1.95 million tonnes.
It also saw copper contribute 54% of BHP's full year earnings.
But Athanasiou is less optimistic about the global iron ore market.
"However, BHP remains heavily exposed to iron ore, leaving earnings sensitive to Chinese demand and commodity price movements," he said.
Recently trading for US$95 per tonne, the iron ore price is down around 6% over the past 12 months.
BHP reported FY 2026 underlying EBITDA from its iron ore division of US$14.5, up 1% year-on-year.
Connecting the dots, Athanasiou issued a hold recommendation on BHP shares.
He concluded:
The quality of BHP's asset base, balance sheet and diversified portfolio leaves existing shareholders with little reason to sell. However, after a solid run, prospective investors may be better served waiting for a potentially more attractive entry point.
