Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) has been one of the stronger performers in the mining sector over the past year.
After a run like that, it is reasonable to wonder whether much of the opportunity has already been captured.
So, would I still put $5,000 into Rio Tinto shares this week?
Image source: Getty Images
The valuation still looks reasonable
Rio Tinto shares are currently trading around $168.84.
According to CommSec, consensus earnings per share estimates stand at $12.07 in FY26 and $12.04 in FY27.
That puts the miner on a forward price-to-earnings multiple of around 14 times in both years.
I think that looks reasonable for a global mining company with substantial exposure to iron ore, aluminium and, increasingly, copper.
There is passive income to consider as well. CommSec expects fully franked dividends of $6.63 per share in FY26 and $6.62 in FY27, which would represent a forecast yield of roughly 3.9% at the current share price.
That gives investors something back while waiting for the longer-term growth story to develop.
Copper is where I get more excited
The copper side of Rio Tinto is becoming increasingly important to my investment case.
Demand for the metal should benefit from spending on electricity networks, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres and other infrastructure needed as the global economy becomes more electrified.
Rio Tinto already has major copper operations, and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia is giving it a meaningful source of production growth.
Copper production from Oyu Tolgoi increased by 31% to 198,000 tonnes during the first half of 2026 as the underground operation continued ramping up.
I think the longer-term opportunity is even more interesting. Rio Tinto expects Oyu Tolgoi to produce around 500,000 tonnes of copper per year on average between 2028 and 2036 from its open pit and underground operations. At that scale, it is expected to become one of the world's largest copper mines.
That gives Rio Tinto a growth project already moving towards much higher production at a time when I expect copper to become increasingly valuable.
What would make me cautious?
Rio Tinto shares have risen by around 50% over the past 12 months, so expectations are certainly higher than they were a year ago.
Mining earnings can also change quickly when commodity prices move. Iron ore remains an important contributor, while a weaker copper price could reduce some of the excitement around the company's expanding production.
The relatively flat consensus earnings forecasts for FY26 and FY27 are a reminder of that cyclicality.
But I think Rio Tinto is becoming a more interesting business for the years ahead. Its copper production is growing, Oyu Tolgoi still has a long ramp-up ahead, and the wider portfolio gives the company several major commodities to work with.
Foolish takeaway
I would invest $5,000 into Rio Tinto shares this week.
The strong share price performance over the past year has made the entry point less attractive than it once was, but I still think around 14 times forecast earnings represents good value.
More importantly, I like where the business could be heading over the next several years as copper becomes a larger part of the story.
For investors prepared to accept the ups and downs that come with mining shares, I think Rio Tinto remains a strong long-term buy.
