Shaw and Partners says there is a growing disconnect between ASX uranium share prices and the uranium commodity price.
In early 2026, ASX uranium share prices soared alongside the uranium price in a speculative rally that was short-lived.
The broker points out that over the past three months, ASX uranium shares were sold off despite a steady commodity price.
For example, Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) shares have dropped 23%, and Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) has fallen 12%.
The self-off was a global trend too, with the Global X Uranium ETF (ASX: ATOM) falling 30% over the three-month period.
Investors appear to have been spooked after the early-year rally took the uranium price above US$100 per tonne in late January.
The uranium price then plunged, alongside many metals and minerals commodities, in early February to about US$85 per pound.
Analysts at Trading Economics explained why ASX uranium share prices rose so strongly at the beginning of 2026.
They said:
Yellowcake prices were lifted by geopolitical tension driving power markets in major economies to be increasingly volatile, sparking interest in nuclear power by governments and power-hungry AI hyperscalers that develop data centers.
Italy was the latest to express interest to approve a legal framework to restore nuclear power, in line with measures from the US and Japan as power consumers expand sources for generation to account for the higher demand from data center projects.
Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft signed agreements to gain fresh nuclear capacity for their future AI data center operations.
Today, the uranium price remains around the US$85 per pound mark.
Shaw and Partners says uranium is experiencing "significantly improving sector fundamentals".
In a new note, the broker said it viewed the recent sell-off in ASX uranium shares as a buying opportunity.
The broker said the uranium price could potentially rise to at least US$200 per pound in a coming super-cycle, before reverting to a long-term sustainable price of US$120 per pound in the next decade.
Shaw and Partners said:
We view the pullback as an excellent buying opportunity.
Despite the pullback, we upgrade our price targets on a higher for longer uranium price.
The equities are pricing uranium at US$70-80/lb, so well below our US$120/lb LT forecast.
Image source: Getty Images
What's driving demand for uranium today?
The broker said the drivers of uranium demand continue to grow.
Nuclear energy has returned to favour with governments focused on energy security and decarbonisation.
The conflict in the Middle East adds additional focus on energy security.
On top of that, demand for clean, baseload energy for data centres and AI will add further demand for nuclear power.
The US, China, and India have all set ambitious targets to expand their nuclear industries.
There are now 38 countries pledged to triple nuclear energy by 2050.
Shaw and Partners said sovereign strategic buyers have recognised the urgency to lock in nuclear fuel supply for the next decade.
India and China are leading the way, and we expect the US to follow suit. India has signed offtakes with Kazatomprom and Cameco.
China is directly investing in offshore uranium assets (e.g. Etango).
In our view, the price of uranium needs to be substantially higher than US$100/lb to incentivise the next wave of supply.
Which ASX uranium shares are a buy?
Shaw and Partners recommends an overweight position in ASX uranium shares.
Here are the broker's preferred stocks and 12-month price targets.
| ASX uranium share | Current price | 12-month target | Potential upside | Broker's comments |
| NexGen Energy (Canada) CDI (ASX: NXG) | $13.50 | $24.80 | 83% | Is developing the exceptional Rook I project in the Western Athabasca Basin in Canada. Construction will shortly commence. |
| Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) | $9.41 | $19.10 | 103% | Paladin operates the Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia and has an attractive growth option at Patterson Lake South in Canada. |
| Silex Systems Ltd (ASX: SLX) | $4.81 | $14.30 | 197% | The company's 3rd generation uranium enrichment technology is likely to revolutionise the uranium enrichment industry. |
| Bannerman Energy Ltd (ASX: BMN) | $3.28 | $7.60 | 132% | Is developing the Etango project in Namibia. CNNC is acquiring a 45% [stake] in the project and will account for 60% of offtake. |
| Peninsula Energy Ltd (ASX: PEN) | 28 cents | 81 cents | 189% | Is restarting production from the Lance Project in the US. Early commissioning issues have impacted CY26 production. |
| Atomic Eagle Ltd (ASX: AEU) | 43 cents | $1.70 | 295% | Has a target to double the resource at the Muntanga Uranium Project in Zambia to over 100Mlb. |
