Why Macquarie shares are forecast to outpace ASX bank stocks like CBA and Westpac

A leading analyst expects Macquarie shares to keep outpacing the big four ASX banks, including CBA and Westpac.

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Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares have been shooting the lights out in 2026.

And they look well placed to keep outperforming in the months ahead.

In late afternoon trade on Monday, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) diversified financial stock were trading for $252.29 apiece.

That sees the share price up 23.8% year to date, smashing the 3% returns delivered by the benchmark index over this same period.

For some context, here's how the big four ASX 200 bank shares have performed in 2026:

  • ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares are up 2.3%
  • Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are up 9.8%
  • Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares are down 2.6%
  • National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares are down 2.2%

Atop the strong outperformance in capital gains in 2026, Macquarie shares also historically pay two partly-franked dividends a year.

At Monday's prices, Macquarie stock trades on a 2.8% trailing dividend yield, franked at 35%.

And looking ahead, Catapult Wealth's Dylan Evans expects Macquarie will continue to outpace the likes of ANZ, Westpac, NAB, and CBA shares (courtesy of The Bull).

Here's why.

ASX 300 share investors in suits running a race on an athletics track

Image source: Getty Images

Should I buy Macquarie shares today?

"Growth potential for the big four banks is likely to come under pressure from moderating house prices and investment loan demand," Evans said.

"We see MQG as a compelling alternative in this environment due to Macquarie's more varied business mix," he added.

Summarising his buy recommendation on Macquarie shares, Evans concluded:

Macquarie offers a global range of services that includes investment banking and asset management, which should enable it to offer solid growth even in a slowing retail banking environment.

Macquarie's commodity and markets business can also benefit from market volatility, a useful trait in what is likely to be an uncertain period given the conflict in Iran.

What's the latest from the ASX 200 financial stock?

On 23 July, Macquarie announced that Shemara Wikramanayake will step down from her role in November after eight years in the top job. Greg Ward will take over the helm on 7 November.

Investors took the news in stride, with Macquarie shares closing down a modest 0.5% on the day.

As for the company's recent performance, in FY 2026, Macquarie delivered a profit of $4.8 billion, up 30% from FY 2025.

Macquarie chairman Glenn Stevens noted, "Each of the four operating groups contributed to the improved result, which says something about the breadth of the group's business."

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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