Bapcor Ltd (ASX: BAP) shares have had a year to forget.
Seriously.
In late afternoon trade on Wednesday, shares in the embattled S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) auto parts company were changing hands for 44 cents apiece.
While that saw the stock up 1.6% in intraday trading, Bapcor shares remain down a very painful 84.1% since this time last year. That's a year in which the ASX 300 has gained 3.7%.
The company has been sold down in part amid investor concerns over its debt levels as well as declining sales. Over the past six months, increased fuel and higher Aussie interest rates have only added to those headwinds.
And looking ahead, Medallion Financial Group's Philippe Bui believes the ASX 300 stock could be in for further pain (courtesy of The Bull).
Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images
Why there could be more losses ahead for Bapcor shares
"Bapcor is an aftermarket automotive parts provider in Australia and New Zealand," Bui said. "It operates the Autobarn, Burson and Autopro brands."
Explaining the difficult market conditions pressuring Bapcor shares, Bui said:
Macro headwinds for consumer discretionary products and weaker retail conditions are pressuring the business. Bunnings, owned by Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), is expanding into the automotive category and is an intensifying competitive threat.
Bui believes Bapcor could continue to struggle, issuing a sell recommendation on the ASX 300 stock.
"The shares remain under pressure. The stock has fallen from $5.24 on July 7, 2025 to trade at 39.5 cents on July 23, 2026. Other stocks appeal more at this stage of the cycle," he concluded.
What's been happening with the ASX 300 stock?
The last market update deemed price sensitive for Bapcor shares was the trading update released on 14 May.
Bapcor reported positive sales momentum between February and April, following the implementation of turnaround activities intended to restore growth. But the company cautioned that second half (H2 FY 2026) trading conditions had "materially deteriorated" since late March, impacted by the Middle East conflict.
In light of these issues, Bapcor downgraded its full year FY 2026 underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) guidance to between $144 million to $150 million (post AASB16, which accounts for leases).
That was down from February's full year EBITDA guidance (issued just prior to the outbreak of the Iran war) of $150 million to $160 million.
Commenting on the day, CEO and managing director Chris Wilesmith pointed to "the challenging external environment which was not contemplated when we began this turnaround, and which has slowed the rate of improvement contemplated in our previous guidance".
Bapcor shares closed down 18.5% on the day of the update.
