WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares have fallen dramatically over the past year.
At around $34.71, the share price sits much closer to its 52-week low of $28.76 than its high of $120.84.
Has the sell-off created a rare buying opportunity? I think the risk/reward looks compelling, although investors need to accept uncertainty.
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Why I still like the business
WiseTech's CargoWise platform helps logistics companies manage customs, freight forwarding, warehousing, transport, compliance, and other parts of moving goods around the world.
I think its position inside those workflows remains a major strength. Large freight forwarders cannot easily replace systems connecting employees, customers, shipments, and regulatory requirements across countries.
That can make CargoWise deeply embedded and give WiseTech room to sell customers more products over time.
The company is also broadening its reach through e2open and investing in artificial intelligence. If WiseTech can bring more supply chain functions into one platform, I think it could become even more valuable to customers seeking better visibility and automation.
What could go wrong?
WiseTech is moving CargoWise customers towards a new commercial model offering broader product capabilities. I can see the long-term logic, but migrations can create customer pushback, revenue uncertainty, and extra work before the benefits appear.
The company also needs to integrate acquired technology and encourage customers to adopt more products.
Artificial intelligence creates another question. AI could automate paperwork, data entry, compliance checks, and other tasks handled by logistics software. Outside providers may become stronger competitors, although I think WiseTech can also build AI directly into workflows customers already use.
The controversies surrounding founder Richard White have added governance and key-person uncertainty.
These issues could potentially keep the WiseTech share price volatile even if the business continues growing.
Does the valuation make sense?
According to CommSec consensus estimates, WiseTech is forecast to generate earnings per share of 94.5 cents in FY26, $1.459 in FY27, and $2.234 in FY28.
At $34.71, that places the shares on forward price-to-earnings ratios of approximately 36.7 times, 23.8 times, and 15.5 times, respectively.
The FY26 valuation is not cheap. However, the multiple will fall rapidly if WiseTech delivers the expected earnings growth.
Analysts are forecasting earnings per share to rise by more than 50% in both FY27 and FY28. Paying around 15.5 times FY28 earnings could look remarkably inexpensive if the business is still expanding strongly by then.
Foolish takeaway
I think WiseTech shares could prove to be a once-in-a-decade bargain for growth investors will to be patient.
The decline reflects genuine concerns around execution, customer migration, AI, governance, and the changing commercial model. Further setbacks could lead to more sharp falls.
However, CargoWise remains deeply connected to global logistics operations, and the earnings forecasts suggest the current valuation could become very attractive if management delivers.
At around $34.71, I think the potential upside outweighs the uncertainties. I would buy the shares while keeping the position size sensible and allowing plenty of time for the investment case to unfold.
