WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares bounced back strongly on Monday, rising 7% to $32.12.
Even so, it's been a brutal year for shareholders. The logistics software company remains down around 73% over the past 12 months, wiping billions from its market value and leaving the company valued at roughly $10 billion.
So why are many analysts still backing the stock?
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Brokers still see plenty of upside
At first glance, the optimism seems surprising.
According to TradingView data, 10 of the 13 analysts covering WiseTech shares rate the stock as either a buy or strong buy, with the remaining three recommending hold. The average 12-month price target sits near $63, implying almost 96% upside from current levels.
Citi remains constructive despite trimming its target price to $52 from $65.65. Even after the downgrade, the broker still sees upside of more than 60%.
Bell Potter is even more optimistic. The broker has maintained its buy recommendation and a $71.75 target price, suggesting WiseTech shares could more than double over the next year.
According to Bell Potter, much of the recent weakness reflects company-specific concerns rather than deterioration in the underlying business. The broker also believes those headwinds should gradually ease, beginning with the appointment of Raelene Murphy as chair.
The business hasn't fallen apart
While the share price has collapsed, WiseTech's core operations have remained remarkably resilient.
Its CargoWise platform continues to be one of the world's leading logistics software solutions, used by freight forwarders, customs brokers, and supply chain operators across the globe.
The business still benefits from long-term trends such as the digitalisation of global trade and increasingly complex international supply chains.
Instead, the sharp decline in WiseTech shares has largely reflected governance concerns.
Questions surrounding founder and executive chair Richard White first emerged late last year and have continued weighing on investor sentiment.
More recently, media reports that the Australian Federal Police is investigating White over alleged trafficking matters added fresh uncertainty.
WiseTech has said the reported investigation relates to White in his personal capacity.
Results could be the next catalyst
The company's FY26 results, due next month, could prove pivotal.
Management has reaffirmed guidance for revenue of US$1.39 billion to US$1.44 billion, representing growth of 79% to 85%.
EBITDA is expected to reach between US$550 million and US$585 million, up 44% to 53% on FY25.
If WiseTech delivers on those targets, investors may start focusing less on governance issues and more on the company's strong earnings growth.
Foolish takeaway
WiseTech shares have endured one of the steepest falls on the ASX over the past year.
Yet brokers remain overwhelmingly positive, arguing the market has punished governance concerns while overlooking the strength of the underlying business.
Whether that optimism proves justified could become much clearer when the company reports its FY26 results at the end of next month.
