BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares closed out one of the best financial years the mining giant has ever delivered, and the market is about to find out how much of that enthusiasm has been reflected in the bottom line.
The company reports its full year numbers next month. This reporting season is shaping up as an unusually nervous one for the wider market.
But after a strong run, BHP shares in particular are under a lot of pressure to perform.
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Why BHP shares ran so hard in FY26
The BHP share price soared 62% in FY26 to finish at $59.40 on 30 June.
That was part of a broader resources boom that delivered the sector its strongest year since 2006.
Copper did most of the heavy lifting, as the metal became the centre of BHP's investment case.
Shares have eased back since that June peak and now trade near $58 following the market-wide sell-off late last week.
The most recent earnings result
BHP delivered its half-year results for the six months to 31 December 2025 in February. In those results, revenue climbed 11% to US$27.9 billion. Underlying EBITDA rose 25% to US$15.5 billion, at a margin of 58%, and underlying attributable profit increased more than 20% to US$6.2 billion.
BHP generated US$9.4 billion in operating cash and finished the half with net debt of US$14.7 billion, comfortably mid-range against its US$10 billion to US$20 billion target.
That strength funded an interim dividend of 73 US cents per share, a 60% payout ratio and a 46% lift on the previous half.
However, the result was defined by one number above all others.
Copper generated record EBITDA of US$8 billion at a margin of 66%, accounting for just over half of group earnings. Management noted that copper's share of earnings has risen 30 percentage points in three years, becoming the primary source of earnings for the company.
The risk hanging over BHP shares
The recent operational review for the year to 30 June 2026 carried a warning for investors.
Total copper production fell 3% to 1,953 kilotonnes across FY26. More importantly, BHP guided FY27 copper production to between 1,650 and 1,800 kilotonnes.
That is a material step down, driven largely by a forecast grade decline at Escondida.
Concentrator feed grade has already slipped to 0.90% from 1.02% a year earlier, and capital expenditure guidance of roughly US$11 billion per annum for both FY26 and FY27 adds further pressure on near-term free cash flow.
Investors will also be watching for the first real commentary from BHP's new chief executive, who took the role on 1 July.
Foolish takeaway
The bull case for BHP shares rests on copper, and specifically on whether the market looks through a softer FY27 to the growth pipeline beyond it.
Jansen, Resolution Copper and Vicuña are all long-dated projects that will not contribute this year or next.
BHP's balance sheet gives management room to keep investing while still returning cash to shareholders.
What's more, the result itself should be strong, given commodity prices through the second half.
However, like always, the share price reaction will hinge a lot on what management says about FY27 rather than what it reports about FY26.
