The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price has seen plenty of volatility over the past year, as the chart below shows. I think it's a good time to consider what could happen next.
As one of the largest ASX-listed iron ore companies, the company is highly dependent on iron ore prices for its profits.
While Fortescue reported several growth figures in its FY26 results, the ASX mining share relied heavily on higher iron ore prices to drive earnings growth.
During the 2026 financial year, its hematite realised price (the iron ore sold price) rose by 7% to US$90 per dry metric tonne (dmt). This drove a 9% rise in revenue to US$17 billion. Underlying operating profit (EBITDA) also increased 9% to US$8.6 billion, while underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) rose 3% to US$3.46 billion.
One earnings headwind was a 4% increase in the C1 unit cost per wet metric tonne (wmt), driven by elevated energy prices and inflationary pressures.
On the cash flow side, operating cash flow grew 6% to US$6.8 billion, and free cash flow soared 25% amid a reduction in capital expenditure. This helped net debt improve by 23% to US$857 million.
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What could happen with the Fortescue share price?
Without a crystal ball, it's hard to know exactly what will happen with the Fortescue share price in the next 12 months. The performance of the iron ore price could be essential for how it plays out.
Analysts have given their view on whether they think the Fortescue share price is undervalued or not.
According to CMC Invest, there have been 11 analyst ratings on the ASX mining share within the last three months. It was a mixed bag. Two ratings were a buy, six were a hold, and three were a sell.
A price target tells investors where they think the (Fortescue) share price will go over the next 12 months, from the time of the investment call.
According to CMC Invest, the average price target of those 11 analyst ratings on the ASX mining share is $18. That implies the analysts collectively think the Fortescue share price could rise by 2% over the next year.
The most optimistic price target of $20.06 suggests a possible rise of 14% over the next year, while the most negative price target is $15.45, suggesting a decline of 12% from where it is.
It'll be interesting to see what happens next, but analysts don't seem to think Fortescue is a great opportunity. There could be a lot better ASX share investments out there.
