Between S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares vs. property, bricks and mortar delivered the superior returns in FY26.
ASX 200 shares rose 2.77% and delivered total returns, including dividends, of 7% in FY26.
Meanwhile, the national median home value, which reflects all property types in a single data point, rose by 7.3%.
The total return, including rental income, was 11% over the 12 months, according to Cotality figures.
Let's break down the numbers a bit more.
Image source: Getty Images
Typical Australian houses now cost $1M!
The national median house price rose 7.8% to $1,025,085, and the median apartment price lifted 5.6% to $752,007 over FY26.
Three interest rate rises in CY26 are having a significant impact on the property market.
Cotality's research director, Tim Lawless, said the June quarter marked "a significant shift in Australia's housing dynamic".
Lawless commented:
Weaker conditions through the second quarter of the year are attributable to an array of downside factors.
Even before interest rates rose by seventy-five basis points, we were seeing affordability hurdles weighing on buyer demand.
Higher cost-of-living pressures, deeply pessimistic sentiment and a further dampening of demand via property taxation changes announced in the federal budget are all contributing to weaker housing conditions.
Typical landlords and first home buyers tend to operate in the same part of the market: at the lower end of the price spectrum.
The expansion of the 5% Home Guarantee Scheme in October has created more demand for lower-end properties.
An expected decline in investor purchasing due to proposed changes to capital gains tax (CGT) may reduce competition for young first-home buyers.
The CGT changes may also weigh on sentiment so much that home values fall, further enhancing affordability for young buyers.
That's the upside of the proposed CGT changes.
The downside is that an exodus of property investors would reduce the number of homes available to the 30% of Australians who rent, leading to higher rents.
On top of that, current homeowners may have to cope with their cornerstone financial asset declining in value.
How will CGT changes influence landlords?
Australian residential real estate has a long and impressive multi-decade history of delivering exceptional capital gains.
Most landlords will tell you they are in it for the capital growth, not the rental yield.
Although rents have increased significantly since COVID, rental yields on property investments are notoriously low.
The national median gross rental yield is 3.7%, but that does not take into account all the holding costs of property.
Once landlords pay their loan repayments, strata fees, council rates, insurance, management expenses, and repairs, there's usually a deficit, which is why they're negatively geared.
Negative gearing will be scrapped on established properties under the proposed CGT changes from 1 July 2027.
Investors will still be able to negatively gear new builds, but long-term data shows landlords strongly prefer established properties.
So, it's arguable as to whether investors will move to the new-home market en masse.
Here's what landlords are thinking about…
If the government intends to take more of a landlord's capital gain, will long-standing landlords decide property is just too much trouble?
Cotality analysts raised this in a recent article, commenting that investors "may now look to other (non-property) assets instead".
Could the CGT changes prompt landlords who have owned investment property for decades to take their discounted gains now?
Their options for the sale proceeds are pretty attractive.
They could pop the money into a savings account yielding 5.5%.
They could contribute the money to superannuation and pay just 15% tax on future earnings, 10% on future capital gains, and no tax after retirement.
Perhaps they might invest in fully-franked ASX dividend shares.
Or they could buy the market's most popular dividend-focused exchange-traded fund (ETF), Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (ASX: VHY), with its 7.2% average three-year yield and 8.8% growth rate.
Research by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) shows that Australian landlords are predominantly high-income earners in their late 40s or early 50s, paying off a modest home mortgage.
At their stage of life, running a property investment, with all its maintenance costs and tenant hassles, may start to look unappealing under the CGT changes, especially if home values fall.
Treasury modelling suggests home values will keep growing, but at a 2% slower rate than otherwise under the CGT changes. Time will tell if that proves accurate.
Shares vs. property in FY26: Houses
Here is the capital growth rate for houses in each market, ranked from highest to lowest.
| Property market | Capital growth FY26 | Median price |
| Perth | 23.6% | $1,093,431 |
| Regional Western Australia | 22.1% | $751,927 |
| Darwin | 19.3% | $766,350 |
| Brisbane | 16.8% | $1,225,350 |
| Regional Tasmania | 12.8% | $646,512 |
| Adelaide | 11.5% | $1,008,736 |
| Hobart | 9.7% | $803,094 |
| Regional Queensland | 14.3% | $864,094 |
| Regional South Australia | 11.6% | $569,830 |
| Regional NSW | 8% | $873,519 |
| National | 7.6% | $674,481 |
| Regional Victoria | 7.1% | $674,481 |
| Canberra | 3.5% | $1,035,828 |
| Regional Northern Territory | 0.8% | $445,087 |
| Sydney | (0.1%) | $1,556,258 |
| Melbourne | (-1.2%) | $948,482 |
Source: Cotality
Shares vs. property in FY26: Apartments
Here is the capital growth rate for apartments (and other strata properties like townhouses), ranked from highest to lowest.
| Property market | Capital growth FY26 | Median price |
| Perth | 26.3% | $773,605 |
| Darwin | 20.9% | $472,572 |
| Regional Western Australia | 20.3% | $442,572 |
| Brisbane | 20.3% | $885,132 |
| Regional Tasmania | 14.7% | $487,510 |
| Regional Queensland | 12.1% | $833,791 |
| Adelaide | 11.7% | $695,151 |
| Regional South Australia | 9.2% | $394,057 |
| Hobart | 7.5% | $587,749 |
| Regional Victoria | 6.5% | $461,683 |
| Regional NSW | 6.4% | $687,320 |
| National | 5.6% | $752,007 |
| Canberra | 0.7% | $597,430 |
| Sydney | 1.1% | $898,623 |
| Melbourne | (-0.2%) | $637,170 |
| Regional Northern Territory | N/A | N/A |
Source: Cotality
5 best-performing ASX 200 shares of FY26
The best-performing ASX 200 shares of FY26 outperformed real estate by a country mile.
Here is the capital growth rate of the five top ASX 200 shares of FY26.
