A new financial year is a useful time to look ahead at which ASX shares are best positioned to deliver in the coming twelve months.
CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT), and Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) all promise to outperform despite varied fortunes in FY26.
Here is the bull case for each, along with the risks investors should weigh against it.
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CSL: FY27 is the year the recovery has to show up
CSL cut its FY26 guidance in May, trimming revenue expectations to around US$15.2 billion. Furthermore, the company flagged roughly US$5 billion in non-cash impairments across FY26 and FY27. These were mostly tied to the underperforming CSL Vifor acquisition.
In FY26, US immunoglobulin inventory normalisation and weaker China albumin pricing did most of the damage.
Interim CEO Gordon Naylor was blunt about it:
Our growth initiatives are working, but the financial benefits will take longer than previously anticipated to materialise.
Looking ahead, CSL has said it expects revenue growth in its core Behring division in the second half of FY26. Moreover, a permanent CEO and new commercial leader is set to take over from 1 July 2026, right as FY27 begins.
This all makes FY27 an important year for the company.
CSL shares are down over 50% over the past year, which means the bar for FY27 is low. But with some potentially good news on the horizon, investors may have something to look forward to for CSL shares in FY27.
NextDC: FY27 is when the order book becomes revenue
NextDC has spent FY26 signing contracts faster than it can build capacity for them.
Pro forma contracted utilisation jumped 60% in a single quarter to 667MW as at 31 March 2026. The company's own presentation states that its forward order book, combined with existing billing, is expected to generate contracted EBITDA in excess of A$1 billion, more than four times the midpoint of FY26 guidance.
The catch is timing.
EBITDA generated from these new contracts does not arrive in FY26. It is forecast to convert "progressively from FY26 through FY30", with FY27 being the first year the bulk of that new AI-driven capacity actually starts billing.
FY27 capital expenditure is guided at approximately $5 billion, nearly double FY26's already-elevated spend. This is a clear signal that management expects FY27 to be the year demand turns into delivered, billable capacity rather than just signed paper.
The primary risk is straightforward: that much capex, funded in part through equity raises, means poor execution or declining AI-related demand could hit the stock hard.
However, with increasing cash flow from its previous contract wins, FY27 could be the year NextDC explodes.
Treasury Wine Estates: FY27 is when the cost-out program starts paying off
Treasury Wine has had a rough run in FY26, with shares down almost 40% over the past year as US and China inventory imbalances weighed on earnings.
At its investor day, management reaffirmed FY26 EBIT guidance of $480 million to $490 million. Management further states that FY27 earnings are expected to be at least equivalent, due to the completion of Penfolds' China inventory rebalancing during FY27.
Furthermore, the company's "TWE Ascent" cost program, targeting $100 million in annual savings, is set to deliver its first benefits starting in FY27.
The full financial impact is expected to be phased in over two to three years.
Shares jumped 10% on the reaffirmed guidance, a sign that the market is encouraged by management's steps.
As a result of all this, FY27 could be the year that TWE reverses its fortunes.
The common thread, and the common risk
All three stories share a pattern: management is asking investors to look past a difficult FY26 and focus on the catalysts in FY27.
This pattern is exactly what makes a stock interesting to watch heading into a new financial year. It is also, however, the kind of promise that may not always arrive on schedule.
Foolish takeaway
CSL, NextDC, and Treasury Wine Estates each have a specific reason FY27 could look meaningfully better than FY26.
None of these ASX shares is risk-free. In each case, the bull case depends on management meeting a target that has already been revised once.
However, after a difficult FY26, these stocks may be ripe for a rebound.
