The Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) share price is in focus today after the company updated investors on its first-half FY26 outlook, highlighting weaker conditions in the US and China and a forecast for 1H26 EBITS between $225 million and $235 million.
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What did Treasury Wine Estates report?
- 1H26 EBITS expected in the range of $225 million to $235 million
- Leverage projected to be 2.5x at 1H26, above the target range of 1.5–2.0x for around two years
- Penfolds division 1H26 EBITS anticipated at approximately $200 million, with steady delivery across the year
- Treasury Americas division 1H26 EBITS expected at about $40 million, impacted by challenges in California
- Treasury Collective 1H26 EBITS expected at roughly $25 million, with second-half performance forecast to improve
- $100 million per annum in cost improvements targeted from the new 'TWE Ascent' transformation program, with benefits starting in FY27
What else do investors need to know?
Recent market softness, especially for luxury and fine wines, has been felt in the US and China. Elevated inventory holdings in both regions have influenced Treasury Wine Estates to reduce customer stocks over the next two years and restrict shipments, especially to counter parallel imports in China and protect the Penfolds brand.
The group has also cancelled its $200 million on-market share buyback, of which $30.5 million had been completed, to prioritise capital flexibility and bring leverage levels back to target. TWE is preparing to adjust its supply and intake models in Australia and may refine its US production network as it moves to rebalance luxury inventories following softer demand.
Management say strong foundations, including a robust balance sheet and diversified debt maturities, will help navigate this period and support sustainable growth, even as some short-term headwinds persist.
What did Treasury Wine Estates management say?
Chief Executive Officer Sam Fischer said:
We are currently experiencing category weakness in the US and China, two of our key growth markets, which will impact our business performance in the near-term. Maintaining the strength of our brands and the health of their respective sales channels is of critical importance to our Management team and our Board as we navigate through the current environment.
TWE is a high-quality business with strong foundations in place for sustainable, profitable growth. Our powerful portfolio of brands, leading market positions in attractive growth markets, unparalleled supply chain and highly engaged, capable team are all considerable strengths that position us strongly to deliver sustainable, profitable growth over the long-term.
What's next for Treasury Wine Estates?
Treasury Wine Estates is focused on executing its 'TWE Ascent' transformation program to streamline operations and achieve material cost benefits. The company expects initial benefits from the $100 million cost improvement target to commence in FY27, with full impact realised over two to three years.
Investors can expect further updates on the progress of inventory rebalancing, capital structure initiatives, and strategic changes during the February half-year results. Management is confident that responding quickly to shifting conditions will help position TWE for longer-term, sustainable and profitable growth.
Treasury Wine Estates share price snapshot
Over the past 12 months, Treasury Wine Estates shares have declined 53%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.
