Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares have delivered some outsized gains over the past 12 months.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rare earths miner were recently trading for $18.53 apiece. That sees the Lynas share price up an impressive 115.2% over the past 12 months, smashing the 2.7% gains delivered by the benchmark index over this same period.
But with the stock having more than doubled in value over a year – and more than tripled investors' money in two years – should I still buy shares today?
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Lynas shares: Buy, hold or sell?
Fairmont Equities' Michael Gable recently ran his slide rule over the ASX 200 miner (courtesy of The Bull).
"Rare earths miners appeal as western nations strive to diversify their supply of these metals away from China," he noted.
"LYC is the largest producer outside of China and is best placed to benefit from an increase in demand," Gable added.
But despite quarterly sales growth and a potential uptrend ahead, he issued a hold recommendation on Lynas shares for now.
According to Gable:
Gross sales revenue of $265 million in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 was up from $201.9 million in the second quarter. In our opinion, share price consolidation appears to be ending in favour of a new uptrend moving forward. The shares have risen from $9.20 on June 26, 2025 to trade at $18.43 on June 25, 2026.
What's the latest from the ASX 200 rare earths stock?
Lynas released its March quarterly update on 21 April.
The 31.3% quarter on quarter gross sales revenue increase Gable mentioned above (up 115% year-on-year) was the strongest quarterly revenue result in almost four years.
The big lift was spurred by a 25% increase in the average Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) selling price alongside higher volumes of rare earth sales.
Over the quarter, Lynas reported total rare earth oxide (REO) production of 3,233 tonnes. That included 1,996 tonnes of NdPr.
The three-month period also saw the miner achieve its maiden Samarium oxide production, which came in ahead of schedule. This makes Lynas the only commercial producer and supplier of both light and heavy rare earths outside China.
On the balance sheet, the company ended the quarter with closing cash and short-term deposits of $1.07 billion.
"Our ramp up has delivered strong production and sales outcomes, with key initiatives positioning Lynas for the future and strengthening business resilience," Lynas CEO Amanda Lacaze said.
Amid high investor expectations, Lynas shares closed down 2.1% on the day of the results release.
