ASX 200 bank shares had a mixed month through June.
Overall, ASX 200 bank shares were relatively stable throughout the month, although they struggled to rebound to the high levels seen earlier this year.
Slower economic growth, moderating inflation data and expectations of interest rate cuts later in the year helped investor sentiment.
Other sectors, such as technology, experienced sharp swings while commodity prices weakened late in the month. The shift saw an increase in investors rotating into more defensive, income-generating sectors such as financials.
However, concerns about overinflated prices, mortgage competition and slowing credit growth kept share price growth subdued.
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What happened to the ASX 200 big four major banks in June?
Australia's banking sector is dominated by the big four banks: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ).
Together, they make up around a quarter of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by market capitalisation.
At the time of writing on the last day of the month, CBA shares are up around 1% for the day and changing hands at $165.46 a piece. The ASX 200 major bank's shares are also around 1% higher over the month.
NAB shares are also trending higher on Tuesday morning, up around 1% to $38.22 a piece, at the time of writing. NAB shares have risen around 2% over the past month.
ANZ shares are also up 1% for the day so far, at $35.52. Over the past month the bank stock has also remained steady, up around 1%.
What about the mid-tier banks?
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) shares are up around 0.5% on Tuesday morning, to $10.51 a piece. Over the month the shares are also up 1%.
It's a similar story for Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ) shares. They have climbed around 0.2% in early morning trade, to $6.28 a piece. The stock is also up roughly 1% over the month.
Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has fallen into the red on Tuesday morning, down roughly 0.5% to $69.44. Over the month the bank was the worst-performing ASX 200 bank stock, down around 9%.
Which ASX banks are a buy for July?
Macquarie Group is the only ASX 200 bank share that tumbled in June, but it's also the only bank stock that brokers think can keep climbing higher over the next 12 months.
TradingView data shows the majority of brokers have a strong buy rating on Macquarie Group shares. The average $256.69 target price implies a potential upside around 2% at the time of writing.
Which ASX banks are rated a sell?
The data also shows that the majority of analysts rate Westpac shares as a sell. They tip a 7% downside to an average $33.39 target price, at the time of writing.
BOQ shares are also expected to fall over the next 12 months. Most brokers rate the ASX bank as a sell, and the $6.11 average target price implies a 3% downside ahead.
Analysts are most bearish about CBA shares. The majority have a strong sell rating on CBA shares, and they all agree a significant downside is ahead. The average $126.36 target price implies a 24% downside, at the time of writing.
And which ones are a hold?
Then there are the ASX 200 bank shares that analysts are on the fence about.
ANZ, NAB, and Bendigo shares have all attracted a hold rating by the majority of analysts.
ANZ shares are tipped to fall 2% to an average target price of $34.93.
The average $37.46 target price on NAB shares also implies a potential 2% downside at the time of writing.
Bendigo shares are also tipped to fall, but by a smaller 1% to an average $10.49 target price.
