S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares appear set to provide only mid-single-digit returns for FY26.
It's been a volatile year due to the wars in Gaza and Iran, the global energy shock, and three interest rate rises.
The chart below shows how the ASX 200 fared throughout the financial year.
Meanwhile on The Bull this week, Michael Gable from Fairmont Equities reveals his ratings on three popular ASX 200 shares.
Let's check them out.
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Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)
The Woodside share price has increased by more than 17% over FY26.
Gable has a buy rating on this ASX 200 energy share, and commented:
We were a buyer of this major energy company prior to the war in Iran. In our view, the recent share price fall presents another buying opportunity.
Moving forward, we're expecting tighter crude oil supplies to lead to higher prices. Recent weaker crude oil prices is a response to governments releasing oil from strategic reserves, but they now need to be replenished.
As the biggest oil stock on the ASX, Woodside Energy will attract investors when they conclude crude oil prices will be higher for longer.
BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)
The BHP share price has grown spectacularly over FY26, delivering more than 60% capital growth to date.
Gable has a hold rating on this ASX 200 mining share.
He said:
In our opinion, the commodities bull market is still in the early stages of the latest cycle. As the biggest miner in the world, BHP attracts investors aiming to increase exposure to the resources sector.
BHP is diverse, so investors gain exposure to a range of commodities, including copper, iron ore, coking coal and potash.
Copper production guidance of between 1.9 million and 2 million tonnes in fiscal year 2026 remains unchanged and is expected to be in the upper half of the range.
We continue to see some solid buying on any dips. BHP offers appeal for long term investors.
Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)
The Xero share price has fallen by more than 60% in FY26.
Gable rates the market's largest ASX 200 tech share a sell.
He explained:
We have been negative about the Australian technology sector since 2025, and rotated into resource stocks.
Increasing interest rates so far in 2026 amid high sharemarket volatility and uncertainty leaves investors questioning the outlook of technology companies trading on relatively high multiples.
In our view, the share price of Xero, an accounting software provider, hasn't sufficiently rallied on recent positive announcements.
Consequently, it indicates the stock remains under selling pressure.
