The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price has suffered a 16% decline since 14 May 2026, as the below chart shows. When an ASX mining share goes through a large dip, it's good to consider whether it's a buy and what could happen to the share price.
Miners can deliver great returns if investors buy them at the right time, given how much resource prices (and profits) can fluctuate.
Mining costs don't change much year to year, so a shift in the revenue per tonne can make a big difference to the profitability because extra revenue for that tonne largely adds straight onto the operating profit (EBITDA) line, though an iron ore reduction can cut straight into net profit.
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Iron ore price reduces
As you may be able to guess, the iron ore price has noticeably fallen in the last several weeks, dropping from more than US$110 per tonne in mid-May to almost US$100 per tonne, at the time of writing, according to Trading Economics.
Considering how that change may hurt Fortescue's monthly profitability, the decline of the Fortescue share price has not been that bad.
But where to from here? The iron ore price is difficult to predict in the short term, though the market is wary of the influence that increased African iron ore production (including Simandou) could have on the global iron ore price.
Interestingly, to potentially offset that headwind, Fortescue is developing its own African iron ore project and diversifying into copper production.
Where could the Fortescue share price go from here?
It's important not to anchor to where a share price has recently been and assume it'll bounce back there quickly.
According to CMC Invest, there have been nine ratings on the business within the last three months.
A price target indicates where analysts expect the share price to be 12 months from the investment call.
The average price target of those nine ratings is $19.05, suggesting (at the time of writing) a slight decline over the next 12 months.
But that's just the average price target. The most optimistic price target is $21.71, suggesting a rise of more than 12%, while the lowest is $15.79, implying a possible decline of around 18% at the time of writing.
The investment professionals are leaning slightly negative on the ASX mining share. Of those nine ratings, just two were buys, three were holds and four were sells.
So, it doesn't seem as though the Fortescue share price is a compelling idea today.
