BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have hit a rough patch after soaring to fresh record highs just last week.
The BHP share price has fallen around 11% since those highs and is down roughly 7% over the past five trading sessions. Despite the pullback, investors are still sitting on impressive gains. BHP shares remain up about 29% in 2026 and have surged approximately 62% over the past 12 months.
For comparison, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained just 2% over the same 12-month period.
So, after a sharp sell-off, where do brokers see BHP shares heading next?
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Why have BHP shares slumped?
The main catalyst behind the recent weakness of BHP shares was an update on the company's massive Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada.
Following a comprehensive review of costs and timelines for Jansen Stage 2, BHP revealed that the project will be significantly more expensive than previously expected.
The company now estimates Stage 2 will require an additional US$4.9 billion to US$5.4 billion beyond earlier forecasts. That comes on top of the original US$4.9 billion budget approved in October 2023.
The $300 billion ASX mining stock also announced it expects to recognise an impairment charge of approximately US$2.3 billion relating to Jansen Stage 2 in its FY26 results.
The timeline has also slipped. First production from Stage 2 is now expected in FY2031, two years later than the previous target of 2029.
Little room for disappointment
Meanwhile, Jansen Stage 1 remains on track for first production in FY2027, although its cost estimate has also increased since the project was originally sanctioned. BHP has indicated it will provide a further update on Stage 1 costs and timing before 31 December 2026.
Importantly, this is not the first time Jansen's projected costs have risen. Repeated budget revisions have increasingly tested investor confidence and raised questions about the reliability of management's long-term project forecasts.
The market's reaction may also reflect the strong run-up in BHP shares prior to the announcement. After climbing around 30% since the start of the year, expectations were high and there was little room for disappointment.
Some investors may also be locking in profits after the remarkable gains of BHP shares.
What do brokers forecast for BHP shares?
Despite the recent sell-off, analysts remain largely neutral on BHP's prospects.
According to TradingView data, 13 of the 19 analysts covering BHP currently rate the stock as a hold. Four analysts have buy recommendations, while two rate the mining giant as either a sell or strong sell.
Among the more recent updates, DZ Bank upgraded BHP shares from sell to hold. The broker has an average price target of $65 per share, implying upside of around 11% from current levels.
The spread of analyst forecasts remains unusually wide.
The most optimistic analyst has a price target of $94.51, suggesting potential upside of about 61.5%. At the other end of the spectrum, the most bearish forecast sits at $40.97, suggesting downside of roughly 30%.
Foolish takeaway
That divergence highlights the key debate facing investors. On one hand, BHP continues to benefit from its world-class asset portfolio, substantial iron ore cash flows, and increasing exposure to copper, which could be crucial in the global energy transition. Potash also remains a potentially valuable long-term growth opportunity, even if the development timeline has stretched further into the future.
On the other hand, escalating project costs and execution risks at Jansen have introduced fresh uncertainty. For now, most brokers appear content to sit on the fence.
