Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares slipped lower on Thursday, closing the day down another 1.5% to $11.38 a piece.
The decline means the shares have now fallen 42% over the past six months. They're also now around 7% lower for the year to date.
The ASX rare earths miner's shares started the year strong, climbing higher through the first four months and peaking at a year-to-date high in mid-April. But then investors started selling up, sending the share price tumbling.
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What is going on with Lynas Rare Earths shares?
Geopolitical volatility, higher costs, lower-than-expected financial results, and investors taking their gains off the table after a strong early-2026 rally all acted as strong headwinds for the Lynas Rare Earths share price.
The downturn accelerated in July after the company announced its fourth quarter FY26 update.
For the three months to the 30th of June, Lynas Rare Earths recorded gross sales revenue of $288.9 million. This was up 69.7% year on year. That marked the miner's highest quarterly revenue since the fourth quarter of FY22. Sales receipts of $297.1 million were up 94.6% and closing cash and short term deposits reached $1,209.1 million.
Total Rare Earth Oxide (REO) production came in at 3,481 tonnes. Meanwhile the average selling price hit a record A$98.2 per kg.
The result looked strong on paper, but the final numbers were a significant miss versus expectations.
Lynas Rare Earths sales revenue came in 23% lower than market expectations. Its total REO production was 4% lower than forecast, and the record average selling price was also a 3% miss.
The company's FY26 full year results in August didn't help sentiment either.
The company posted a record FY26 profit and revenue, as company growth continues to ramp up. It reported a 76% increase in revenue and a 282% increase in EBITDA. Lynas Rare Earths also confirmed it is focused on ramping up new assets in FY27 and growing its global presence.
But yet again, the miner's $222.4 million net profit was a miss versus analysts expectations of around $242.5 million. And it raised red flags about costs going forward.
The shares fell further again after the company announced a new acquisition deal in early-October. Lynas Rare Earths posted a note to the ASX confirming it plans to acquire all shares in Meteoric Resources Ltd (ASX: MEI) via an all-scrip deal, valued at approximately A$968 million.
Meteoric shareholders will receive 0.0207 new Lynas shares per Meteoric share held, while Lynas Rare Earths boosts its resource base, including the largest ionic clay rare earth resource outside China.
As part of the announcement, the company also flagged that it is moving forward with plans to diversify its resource base, expand its global footprint, and enhance supply of critical minerals at a time of robust demand.
Is there any chance of a share price rebound?
According to the experts, yes, and it could be sizable too.
Market Index data shows the majority of brokers have a strong buy rating on the shares. The $19.36 average target price implies a potential upside of 70%, at the time of writing.
TradingView data shows something similar. Again the majority (11 out of 14) have a buy/strong buy rating on the shares. The average target price is a little lower, at $18.07, but that still implies a potential upside of around 59%, at the time of writing.
