For most of the past two decades, CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) carried an almost mythical status on the ASX.
"Never sell CSL" was the informal mantra among Australian investors and brokers.
The plasma-derived therapies giant delivered extraordinary returns for shareholders year after year, compounding at rates that made it one of the best-performing stocks in the history of the Australian market.
Then came 2025 and 2026.
Here is what ten years of CSL ownership has actually delivered.
Image source: Getty Images
Capital appreciation
In June 2016, CSL shares were trading at approximately $100 on the ASX.
A $10,000 investment at that price would have bought approximately 100 shares.
Today, CSL shares trade at approximately $106 following a 15% bounce from their decade low below $93.
On capital appreciation alone, those 100 shares are now worth approximately $10,600.
That is a capital gain of just 6% over ten years.
For a stock that was once considered Australia's finest business, that is a sobering number.
The dividend contribution changes the picture
However, the capital return alone does not tell the full story.
CSL has paid dividends consistently throughout the decade, growing the payout from $0.58 per share interim in early 2016 to US$1.30 per share interim in 2026.
Over the ten-year period, CSL paid total cumulative dividends of approximately $31.39 per share in AUD terms. This would have generated approximately $3,139 in dividend income on a 100-share holding over that period.
It is worth noting that CSL's dividends are unfranked for most of the period, with only partial 10% franking applied to some final dividends in 2021, 2022, and 2023. This reflects the company's predominantly offshore earnings base.
That means the tax effectiveness of CSL's income stream is lower than that of a fully franked dividend payer like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) or Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES). This is an important consideration for Australian investors building income portfolios inside superannuation.
Adding the $3,139 in dividends to the capital value of $10,600 gives a total portfolio value of approximately $13,739, a total return of approximately 37% over ten years.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) returned approximately 8.53% per annum including dividends since inception.
A $10,000 investment in an index fund tracking the ASX 200 ten years ago would be worth approximately $22,000 today.
CSL underperformed the index by a wide margin over the decade as a whole, despite being widely regarded as the finest business on the ASX for most of that period.
Why the ten-year return for CSL shares looks so disappointing
The explanation is not that CSL is a bad business.
It is that the starting valuation in 2016 was already extremely demanding. At approximately $100 per share in June 2016, CSL was already trading at a significant premium to the market.
The subsequent 65% decline from CSL's all-time high has unwound years of that premium, as earnings downgrades, the CSL Vifor acquisition disappointment, and operational headwinds across the plasma business disappointed investors.
The painful lesson is that even the best business in the country can deliver poor returns if you pay too much for it at the outset.
But the current entry point for CSL shares is very different
Here is where the story gets interesting for investors thinking about the next ten years rather than the last ten.
CSL today trades at approximately 13 times forecast FY2026 earnings, a valuation it has not seen in more than fifteen years.
Morgans carries a buy rating on CSL shares with a price target of $147.59, implying upside of approximately 32% from today's price.
Three separate company directors, including chair Carolyn Hewson, interim CEO Gordon Naylor, and Non-Executive Director Alison Watkins, have all bought CSL shares on market in recent weeks.
This is a signal that those closest to the business believe the selloff has overshot. The plasma margin recovery is underway.
The transformation program is on track to deliver US$500 million to US$550 million in annual savings by FY2028.
And CSL's irreplaceable market position in plasma-derived therapies has not changed.
Foolish takeaway
$10,000 in CSL shares ten years ago would be worth approximately $13,700 today including dividends. That is a return of approximately 37%, or around 3.1% per annum.
CSL shares have underperformed the ASX 200 index materially.
But they also generated reliable income throughout, and the business that produced those dividends is still standing, still growing its plasma collection volumes, and still trading with a moat no competitor has managed to breach in four decades.
For patient investors who believe the worst is behind CSL, the next ten years could tell a very different story.
