Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) shares have come back a fair way from their highs.
The shares are trading around $73.79 on Thursday, compared with a 52-week high of $94.70.
Could they recover and make their way to $100 in 2027? Let's run the numbers and find out.
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Could Wesfarmers reach $100?
I think $100 is possible, but it looks unlikely to me over that timeframe.
From $73.79, Wesfarmers shares would need to rise around 36% to reach $100.
The business itself remains one I rate highly. Wesfarmers owns Bunnings, Kmart, Officeworks, and several other businesses, giving it multiple ways to grow earnings over time.
But the current forecasts suggest that growth will be fairly steady.
According to CommSec, consensus estimates point to earnings per share of $2.72 in FY27, rising to $2.90 in FY28 and $3.11 in FY29.
If Wesfarmers reached $100, the shares would be trading on a P/E ratio of around 34 times forecast FY28 earnings and 32 times FY29 earnings.
I think that would be a fairly demanding valuation, even for a business of Wesfarmers' quality.
What has Wesfarmers traded at historically?
Wesfarmers has commanded a premium valuation for some time, so a high P/E ratio would not be unusual.
Its average annual P/E ratios over the past five years, according to CommSec, have ranged from around 22 times to 32 times earnings.
That helps put a $100 share price into perspective.
Wesfarmers could certainly trade above its historical averages for a period, particularly if investors become more optimistic about earnings growth.
But I would not want to base my expectations on the market pushing the valuation significantly higher while earnings are growing at a relatively measured pace.
Could Wesfarmers get back to $90?
I think $90 looks much more achievable.
That would require a gain of around 22% from today's price and would still leave the shares below their 52-week high.
At $90, Wesfarmers would trade at around 31 times forecast FY28 earnings and 29 times FY29 earnings.
Those multiples are still high, but they sit much more comfortably within the range investors have been willing to pay for Wesfarmers shares in recent years.
If Bunnings and Kmart continue to perform well and group earnings keep rising, I could see the market becoming more positive on the shares again.
Dividends provide something along the way
Wesfarmers should also continue returning cash to shareholders while investors wait.
Consensus forecasts point to fully-franked dividends of $2.34 per share in FY27, $2.49 per share in FY28, and $2.71 per share in FY29.
At today's price, the FY27 forecast represents a dividend yield of around 3.2%.
Foolish takeaway
I would not be counting on Wesfarmers shares reaching $100 in 2027.
The business is still one I would happily own, but $100 would require both a strong share price recovery and a valuation towards the expensive end of its recent history.
Around $90 looks more realistic to me. If Wesfarmers keeps growing earnings and its major businesses perform well, I think a return towards that level is quite achievable.
