Top broker says this small-cap ASX stock could rise almost 50%

Bell Potter thinks this speculative stock could be a buy.

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If you have a high tolerance for risk, then it could be worth listening to what Bell Potter is saying about the ASX stock in this article.

That's because its analysts believe this small-cap could rise very strongly from current levels.

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Image source: Getty Images

Which ASX stock?

The stock that Bell Potter is recommending to clients with a high risk tolerance is Bubs Australia Ltd (ASX: BUB).

It is a growing infant formula company with a focus on the goat and organic sub-categories.

Bell Potter notes that the company has released a trading update. And while management has downgraded its expectations, it was still in line with what the broker was expecting. It said:

FY26 trading update, while a downgrade from their existing guidance is pretty much consistent with our thoughts that were updated following the 3Q26 sales update. Key points: FY26e Revenue: BUB has provided guidance of $105-115m, which compares to previous guidance of $120-125m and (BPe prev. of $113.5m). FY26e EBITDA: BUB has provided guidance for Reported EBITDA of -$2m to +$2m and underlying EBITDA of $4-8m, which compares to previous guidance of Reported EBITDA of $4-6m and Underlying EBITDA of $9-11m. This compares to BPe prev. forecasts of a -$0.4m Reported EBITDA loss.

We have reduced our forecasts, following the weaker than expected 3Q26 sales update and as such we do not see the revised guidance parameters as out of touch with our expectations. Consequently EBITDA changes are modest at -6% in FY27e but +12% in FY28e. Our valuation is revised to $0.135ps (prev. $0.145ps) following peer group compression in EV/revenue multiples.

Shares tipped to rise

According to the note, Bell Potter has retained its speculative buy rating on the ASX stock with a trimmed price target of 13.5 cents (from 14.5 cents).

Based on its current share price of 9.2 cents, this implies potential upside of almost 50% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its speculative buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

Our Buy, Speculative risk rating remains unchanged. BUB continues to make progress in expanding its distribution footprint in the US (from 5,558 at Feb'26 to a target 10,000 by Jul'26) while managing temporary supply chain cost pressures (additional air freight in FY26-27e COGS). Signs that sell-in volumes are converting to sell-through and higher reorder rates (first signs likely by 1Q27e) and permanent US market access are likely key catalysts for share price performance.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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