Most ASX 200 bank shares slumped in May as concerns about the Federal Budget's property tax changes, higher interest rates, disappointing quarterly updates, and ongoing global volatility continued to spook investors.
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What happened to the ASX 200 big four major banks in May?
Australia's banking sector is dominated by the big four banks: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ).
Together, they make up around a quarter of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by market capitalisation.
CBA shares fell 5.6% in May and are trading around 1% lower again for the first day of June. At the time of writing, the ASX 200 bank shares are changing hands for $163.87 a piece.
Westpac shares fell 6.5% throughout the month, and are largely flat at the time of writing on Monday, at $36.02 a piece.
NAB shares also fell by 6.4% in May. At the time of writing, the bank shares are marginally higher, up around 0.4% to $37.48 each.
ANZ shares suffered a slightly smaller slump in May versus its peers. The bank stock fell 4% in May and has continued tumbling into the first day of June. At the time of writing, the shares are down around 0.5% to $35.03 a piece.
What about the mid-tier banks?
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) shares fell 3.3%, and Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ) dropped nearly 7% in May.
Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) was the best performer by far and the only ASX 200 bank that saw a gain throughout the month. Its shares climbed around 1.5% in May.
It looks like Macquarie largely escaped the May bank sell-off. This is likely because it posted a stronger-than-expected FY26 result in the first week of the month.
Which ASX banks are a buy for June?
Macquarie Group is also the only ASX 200 bank share that brokers think can keep climbing higher.
Market Index data shows brokers have a buy rating on Macquarie Group shares. It tips around a 7% upside to $253.75 at the time of writing.
Which ASX banks are a sell?
Analysts are concerned that CBA shares are still overvalued versus their peers. Market Index data shows brokers hold a strong sell rating on the ASX 200 bank's shares. They tip a potential average 23.85% downside to $124.20 at the time of writing.
Brokers also rate Westpac shares a strong sell and tip a 6% downside to an average target price of $33.97 over the next 12 months.
NAB shares are a sell, but the average $39.21 target price still implies a potential 5% upside, at the time of writing.
Meanwhile, Bank of Queensland shares are rated a sell and are tipped to fall just over 1% to $6.14 each.
Which ones are a hold?
Brokers rate ANZ shares as a hold, and they tip a 3.2% potential upside to an average $36.20 target price, at the time of writing.
Bendigo shares are also rated a hold, and brokers tip a 3% upside to an average target price of $10.66.
