3 ASX shares that could win big from Australia's push to net zero

Australia has committed to net zero by 2050. The transition is already underway, and these three companies are positioned to benefit.

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Australia's energy system is in the middle of a once-in-a-generation transformation.

Coal-fired power stations are closing, renewable capacity is expanding rapidly, and the federal government has committed to net zero emissions by 2050 with an interim target of a 43% reduction by 2030.

For investors, the question is which companies can capture the most value from this transition.

Three ASX-listed names stand out.

A man and his small son crouch in a green field under a beautiful sunset sky looking at renewable, wind generators for energy production.

Image source: Getty Images

AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL)

AGL Energy is Australia's largest electricity generator and one of the most active investors in the energy transition, despite its roots in coal-fired power.

The company is deploying $2 billion in growth projects, including the commissioning of the first 250-megawatt tranche of the Liddell Battery in New South Wales.

The full 500-megawatt system expected to reach completion by June 2026.

In addition, AGL reinvested approximately $750 million in proceeds from the sale of its Tilt Renewables stake directly into batteries and flexible generation assets.

At the Macquarie Conference, management narrowed its FY2026 underlying EBITDA guidance to $2.06 billion to $2.18 billion, reflecting strong operational performance and improved plant availability.

Ord Minnett carries a buy rating on AGL with a price target of $13.

The broker believes the market continues to underappreciate the pace and scale of AGL's transition strategy.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)

Origin Energy approaches the net zero transition from a different angle, combining a large electricity retail franchise with one of Australia's most ambitious battery storage programs.

The company delivered Eraring Battery Stage 1 on time and within budget, and its full 700 megawatt, 3,160 megawatt-hour Eraring Battery is targeted for completion by early 2027.

This will rank among the largest battery storage assets in the country.

Meanwhile, Origin is expanding its renewables contracting business and progressing its Supernode and Mortlake battery projects.

The company has also upgraded its Energy Markets underlying EBITDA guidance to $1,550 million to $1,750 million for FY2026, reflecting stronger than expected performance in electricity margins.

Furthermore, Origin's partnership with Octopus Energy and its Kraken technology platform positions the business as a technology-enabled energy retailer, a potential source of future competitive advantage.

Mercury NZ Ltd (ASX: MCY)

Mercury NZ offers Australian investors a distinctive and pure-play exposure to the net zero theme through its 100% renewable electricity generation portfolio in New Zealand.

This portfolio spans hydro, geothermal, and wind assets.

The company posted a 28% lift in EBITDAF to NZ$537 million for the first half of FY2026, alongside a 130% jump in net profit after tax, as improved hydro inflows and disciplined cost management drove a strong result.

Mercury is actively reinvesting in new generation capacity, with its NZ$220 million Ngā Tamariki Geothermal Station expansion unit now operational, and both its Kaiwera Downs Stage 2 and Kaiwaikawe wind farms on track to begin generating during 2026 and 2027.

Management targets NZ$1 billion in EBITDA for FY2026 and has guided a 4% increase in the full-year dividend to 25 cents per share, extending what is now a 17-year consecutive run of dividend growth.

At a time when investors increasingly seek businesses that align with long-term tailwinds, Mercury's 100% renewable generation model is a strong differentiator.

Foolish takeaway

Australia's net zero transition will reshape the energy sector for decades.

AGL brings scale.

Origin combines a large customer base with a growing battery portfolio and technology portfolio.

And Mercury offers pure-play renewable exposure with a 17-year dividend growth track record.

Together they represent three very different but equally compelling ways to participate in one of the most important themes of the next decade.

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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