Bapcor Ltd (ASX: BAP) recently delivered another weak trading update, which has pushed its shares even lower, with the stock now more than 90% down over a 12-month period.
The question is, does the share price weakness now represent good value buying, or is it still time to stay on the sidelines?
I've canvassed the opinions of three major brokers and will shortly reveal their share price target for the company.
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Conflict derails momentum
First, let's have a look at Bapcor's recent trading update.
The auto parts and accessories retailer said in its update released last week that it had "positive momentum from turnaround activities implemented since the release of the 1H26 results''.
But it also warned that trading in its second half had been negatively impacted by the war in the Middle East.
The company said:
Bapcor has delivered improved sales momentum, with sales growth in February 2026 to April 2026 across all business segments versus the prior comparative period (pcp). This is a turnaround from the declines evident across all business segments in the period from July 2025 to January 2026 versus the pcp.
But while the February to April period was positive, "trading conditions have materially deteriorated since late March 2026 with the commencement of the Middle East conflict and the increase in interest rates''.
The company therefore reduced its FY26 earnings guidance to $62 to $68 million, down from $74 to $79 million.
Bapcor Managing Director Chris Wilesmith said:
We are pleased with the positive momentum of the turnaround, which has been delivered through decisive actions we've taken to improve pricing, stock availability and team engagement. This is despite the challenging external environment which was not contemplated when we began this turnaround, and which has slowed the rate of improvement contemplated in our previous guidance. We will continue driving initiatives during the important trading months of May and June.
The company said net debt at the end of April was about $168 million, and the current trading conditions could give rise to a non-cash impairment at the end of the financial year.
Analysts still wary
Following the update, brokers have revised their price targets for Bapcor shares, which are currently changing hands for 36.75 cents.
Macquarie reduced its price target for the company from 61 cents to 44 cents.
They said:
Management remains focused on executing strategic initiatives to improve operating and financial performance. Given the softer trading conditions from the Middle East conflict and higher rates, some initiatives will take longer to execute on and hence see the benefits. Maintain Neutral.
Morgans, in a note titled "A long road back", said it was "Another disappointing, but largely unsurprising update from BAP''.
Morgans has a price target of 41 cents per share on the company.
Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, has a very bearish price target of 25 cents on the shares.
Morgan Stanley said:
We see BAP's Autobarn as sub-scale vs Supercheap Auto (SCA) and Repco, with less scope for command and control with a franchise network. We also see the range as less DIY and more discretionary vs SCA and especially vs Repco, a concern with a softening consumer.
Bapcor is valued at $248.9 million.
