Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares are certainly not immune to the surge in global energy prices since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.
Indeed, on 26 February – two days before the Iran war commenced – Qantas estimated that supplying its aircraft with jet fuel in the second half of the financial year (H2 FY 2026) would cost around $2.5 billion.
No small sum, that.
However, on 14 April, with global oil prices rocketing, Qantas bumped up its second-half-year jet fuel cost forecast to $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion. Adding a potential $600 million drag on full-year profits from the prior estimate.
But rather than pull into its shell, the ASX 200 airline stock is embracing the old adage, "When life hands you lemons, make lemonade."
And Qantas shares may make that proverbial lemonade at the expense of rival Air New Zealand Ltd (ASX: AIZ).
On Thursday, Air New Zealand reported that it was increasing its second-half FY 2026 fuel cost forecast to approximately NZ$980 million. That's up from prior expectations of NZ$740 million.
As such, Air New Zealand said it now expects to post an FY 2026 loss before tax of between NZ$340 million and NZ$390 million.
With Qantas having increased its first-half-year underlying profit before tax by $71 million to reach $1.46 billion, the company is taking aim at Air New Zealand's routes.
Image source: Getty Images
Qantas shares expanding their New Zealand footprint
Speaking in Wellington this week, Qantas CEO Vanessa Hudson noted that Australia continues to be New Zealand's largest international visitor market.
Commenting on the surging price of jet fuel, she said:
I want to be honest about the environment we're operating in. Fuel costs are elevated. The situation in the Middle East continues to affect routing and costs for airlines globally. When you run an airline, uncertainty is never far away.
However, Hudson revealed how Qantas shares could find support during difficult times by increasing its presence in New Zealand.
According to Hudson:
What we've learned over more than a century of flying is that when conditions are difficult, you back the relationships that matter most. New Zealand is one of those relationships. And we are backing it.
What the Qantas Group is committing to New Zealand right now is the biggest investment we have ever made in this market. Across Qantas and Jetstar, more than 800,000 seats have been added between Australia and New Zealand over the last 12 months.
She noted that the airline's investment in New Zealand goes beyond adding those seats.
"We recently opened our new Auckland lounge, a multi-million-dollar investment and part of the hundreds of millions we are committing to our lounge network globally," she said.
Hudson added, "We're investing in Auckland because we see its potential, and we want to be the airline that realises it."
As of Friday's close, Qantas shares were down 14.17% since the onset of the Iran war.
Air New Zealand shares have tumbled 29.79% over this same period.
