Like many ASX gold stocks, Pantoro Gold Ltd (ASX: PNR) enjoyed a stellar run through much of 2025 and into early 2026.
Pantoro is a West Australian gold production and development company. Its flagship asset is the 100%-owned Norseman Gold Project (NGP), south of Kalgoorlie in WA.
However since hitting a recent peak of nearly $6 per share in March, this ASX gold stock has fallen significantly.
Since early March, it has dropped more than 46%.
At the end of April, the company released a quarterly report, which prompted updated guidance from the team at Bell Potter.
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What did this ASX gold company report?
All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) for the quarter was $3,204 per ounce, generating EBITDA was $88.4 million.
The company reported March quarter gold production of 17,757oz from the Norseman Gold Project (NGP) at All-In-Sustaining-Costs (AISC) of A$3,204/oz.
The result was a miss compared with Bell Potter's forecast of 20,861oz at A$2,604/oz.
Production was impacted by flooding at the Scotia underground associated with Cyclone Mitchell in February, and by significant loader downtime throughout February and March.
The company also said it expects a strong finish to FY2026 and is currently on track to achieve the guidance range of 86,000 to 92,000 ounces by the end of the year.
Buy, hold or sell?
After falling significantly this year, investors might be hoping for a buy-low opportunity for this ASX gold stock.
However, based on Bell Potter's guidance, it seems there is limited upside.
The broker has maintained its hold recommendation. It also lowered its price target to $3.55 (previously A$4.20).
From yesterday's closing price of $3.16, this indicates a modest upside of 12%.
PNR offers unhedged gold production exposure and potential production growth, but we see multiple risks to both the near and medium-term outlook. It has a strong balance sheet, continues to generate positive free cash flow and has an active share buyback program in place.
However, we expect the market to apply a risk discount until delivery to guidance is restored.
Brokers views mixed
It is worth noting that there is more optimism for this ASX gold stock from other brokers.
Recently, the team at Morgans said although its production was softer than expected during the third quarter, there is upside for this ASX gold stock.
Morgans has put a buy rating and $6.29 price target on its shares.
This indicates an upside potential of 99%.
