Better buy? CSL vs Rio Tinto shares

When two quality shares diverge, I think it is worth taking a closer look.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Choosing between two high-quality ASX shares is not always straightforward.

Both CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) have strong positions in their respective industries, and both have delivered solid returns for investors over time.

But right now, I think the comparison is becoming more interesting.

While Rio Tinto has been performing well, CSL's recent weakness may be creating an opportunity to buy a fallen giant before it recovers.

Young businesswoman sitting in kitchen and working on laptop.

Image source: Getty Images

CSL shares

CSL has had a tough period.

Its recent results disappointed the market, with earnings impacted by restructuring costs, impairments, and policy changes. That has weighed on sentiment and helped drive the share price lower over the past year.

But when I look beyond that, I still see a high-quality global healthcare business.

Demand for plasma therapies, vaccines, and specialty medicines is supported by long-term trends. This includes an ageing population and increasing healthcare needs.

Those drivers have not changed. What has changed is valuation.

After the pullback, CSL shares are now trading on multi-year low earnings multiples. For a business with its track record, that stands out to me.

The company is also actively working through a transformation program aimed at improving efficiency and supporting future growth.

For me, this combination of quality, long-term demand, and a lower starting valuation is what makes CSL shares compelling.

Rio Tinto shares

Rio Tinto has been a very different story.

The company has benefited from strong commodity prices, particularly in copper, which has supported earnings and shareholder returns. Iron ore prices have also been robust.

It is a highly cash-generative business, and that often flows through to dividends. There is also a longer-term story around copper, which is becoming increasingly important for electrification and global infrastructure.

So I can understand why Rio Tinto shares have been performing well.

But that strength can also work the other way. When a company is in favour and performing strongly, a lot of that optimism can already be reflected in the share price.

That does not mean Rio Tinto is not a good investment. It just means the upside from here may be more closely tied to commodity cycles and less to a re-rating.

Which is the better buy?

I think both CSL and Rio Tinto are quality businesses.

If I were looking for income and exposure to commodities, Rio Tinto would still make a strong case.

But if I am thinking about potential returns over the next five years, I would lean toward CSL shares.

The share price has been under pressure, expectations are lower, and the valuation looks more attractive than it has for some time.

If the company can improve execution, deliver on its transformation, and rebuild investor confidence, I think there is scope for a meaningful share price recovery.

Foolish takeaway

Both CSL and Rio Tinto have their place. Rio Tinto offers strong cash flow and exposure to global commodities, particularly when markets are supportive. CSL, on the other hand, looks like a business going through a difficult period but still backed by strong long-term fundamentals.

For me, that creates a more interesting risk-reward opportunity. It may require patience, but I think CSL has the potential to deliver stronger returns from here if things start to fall into place.

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Blue Chip Shares

Workers inspecting a gas pipeline.
Dividend Investing

This overlooked ASX stock has raised its dividend 20 years in a row

20 years of consistent dividend growth is just the tip of the iceberg for this quality business.

Read more »

Person handing out $50 notes, symbolising ex-dividend date.
Blue Chip Shares

Where I'd invest $10,000 into ASX 200 dividend shares right now

These businesses look like compelling buys today.

Read more »

A smiling woman with a handful of $100 notes, indicating strong dividend payments
Retail Shares

3 ASX retail shares exposed to a drop in consumer spending

Which stocks could be most impacted by a drop in consumer spending?

Read more »

A target on a red background surrounded by white arrows pointing to it.
Blue Chip Shares

2 high-quality ASX 200 shares experts rate as buys

Experts say these businesses are undervalued.

Read more »

Man with virtual white circles on his eye and AI written on top, symbolising artificial intelligence.
Blue Chip Shares

Why this ASX 200 blue-chip share could be an AI winner

Some companies sell AI tools. Others may create value by applying them across large customer bases and complex operations.

Read more »

A bland looking man in a brown suit opens his jacket to reveal a red and gold superhero dollar symbol on his chest.
Blue Chip Shares

1 ASX blue chip stock I'd consider buying with the ASX 200 around 8,700

This healthcare business has exposure to a large underdiagnosed market, strong recent momentum, and a growing digital ecosystem.

Read more »

A young woman sits with her hand to her chin staring off to the side thinking about her investments.
Blue Chip Shares

Should I buy CBA and Qantas shares this month?

These two ASX 200 shares offer very different opportunities, but both could be worth considering for long-term investors in May.

Read more »

A young boy dressed up in a business suit and tie has a cute grin and holds two fingers up.
Blue Chip Shares

2 ASX 200 shares I'd buy and 2 I'd sell this month

Quality is important, but price is too. That's why I would be selective across the ASX 200 rather than buying…

Read more »