After new production guidance, how high could this ASX gold stock go?

These shares are looking cheap, Macquarie says.

West African Resources Ltd (ASX: WAF) this week announced record gold production guidance for this year and, looking further out, said it expects to average more than half a million ounces of gold production per year for the next decade.

It was a positive announcement, though it led the team at Macquarie to slightly lower its price target for the company.

They are still bullish on the stock, however, and think investors can make serious gains over the next 12 months.

We'll get to the details of their share price target shortly.

Firstly, what did West African Resources announce?

Man putting golden coins on a board, representing multiple streams of income.

Image source: Getty Images

Strong production profile

The company said its ore reserves had increased to seven million ounces of gold, which would underpin 5.3 million ounces of gold production from 2026 to 2035.

West African Executive Chair Richard Hyde said there could be further upside:

WAF's updated 10-year production outlook forecasts the production of 5.3 million ounces of gold over the next decade, with production peaking in 2030 at 596,000 ounces. Our unhedged Mineral Resources now stand at 13.6 million ounces of gold, while Ore Reserves total 7.0 million ounces. We see potential to improve annual production further through our ongoing drilling programs where we plan to drill more than 100,000m annually targeting extensions at M5 South underground, beneath M5 North open-pit and Toega underground. Our 2026 10-year production plan highlights WAF's strong and sustainable long-term future.

The company said its Sanbrado and Kiaka projects, along with surrounding exploration licenses, had "strong potential" for new discoveries and extensions of existing resources.

The company added:

Current efforts are focused on near mine exploration to maximise value from our operating assets, where mineralisation remains open at depth. West African plans to further expand its owner operated drilling fleet in 2026 with the purchase of two additional surface diamond rigs to accelerate resource and reserve growth.

Shares looking cheap

The analyst team at Macquarie ran the ruler over this week's announcement and said that the production forecast was in line with consensus estimates.

However, they said that the higher overall production over the next 10 years was offset by higher expected costs across the operations.

They said the company had also hinted at paying a dividend, so they had factored a 10-cent per share dividend into their calculations on the company's shares.

Macquarie has a 12-month price target of $4.50 on West African shares, which they reduced by 10 cents from $4.60, compared with the current share price of $3.37.

That would be a return of 33.5% if achieved.

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Gold

Stacked gold bricks.
Gold

This ASX gold technology company could rise by more than a third, RBC Capital Markets says

The potential market for this company is large, the broker says.

Read more »

3D render of gold dollar with arrow sign.
Gold

Why are Northern Star shares rocketing 8% on Wednesday?

Northern Star shares surge on takeover speculation.

Read more »

Smiling Indian manager leaning on chair.
Gold

Up 250% in 12 months, Bell Potter says this ASX 200 gold stock can rise another 73%

This gold stock hasn't peaked yet according to the broker.

Read more »

Businessman planning and analysing investment data.
Gold

Is the Northern Star share price a cheap buy?

I take a closer look at whether this gold share still offers value after Yesterday's jump.

Read more »

Judge's gavel and justice scales
Gold

Guess which ASX stock is rocketing 46% today

This gold explorer is making headlines.

Read more »

Gold bullion leaning on a stack of gold ingots.
Gold

Why I'd buy the dip in top ASX 200 gold stocks like Newmont, Northern Star and Evolution Mining shares today

I think the recent pullback in top ASX gold stocks like Evolution Mining presents an opportune buying opportunity.

Read more »

Stacked gold bricks.
Gold

If I'd put $3k in this ASX 200 gold stock 12 months ago, I'd have $12,500 now

The gold shares have slid lower on Thursday, but that doesn't tell the whole story.

Read more »

Two miners examine things they have taken out the ground.
Gold

$10,000 invested in Evolution Mining and Northern Star shares 3 years ago is now worth…

Here’s how the three-year returns from Evolution Mining and Northern Star shares stack up.

Read more »