Supermarket giants Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) have had a rivalry spanning decades. From grocery prices to product lines, revenue growth, and even share prices, the two retailers compete for nearly everything with Australia's supermarket and grocery retail sector.
Shares of both supermarkets have been neck and neck for some time, but so far in 2026, Woolworths is storming ahead.
Here's what has happened, and what to expect next.
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What's happened to Woolworths shares this year?
Woolworths shares are down 0.25% in Wednesday afternoon trade, to $35.74 a piece. Despite the blip, the supermarket's shares have stormed 21% higher so far in 2026. They're now up 27% over the year.
It's welcome news for investors after the retailer's shares nosedived nearly 20% in August last year after it posted a disappointing FY25 result. The share price dropped to an all-time low in mid-October. It was saved from any further declines following Woolworths' positive first-quarter sales update late last year.
The company posted its half-year FY26 results in late February, revealing a 3.4% increase in sales, a 14.4% increase in earnings before interest and tax (EBIT), and a 16.4% surge in net profit.
Investors were thrilled, and the share price soared 15% to an 18-month high. Since then, Woolworths shares have remained relatively stable.
Analysts project the momentum to continue throughout the second half of FY26. It looks like the business is beginning to reap the rewards of its turnaround strategy implemented last year.
What's happened to Coles shares this year?
Coles shares are down 0.3% at the time of writing, to $21 a piece. It's been a pretty volatile start to 2026 for the supermarket giant, with its share price wildly fluctuating. The share price is now down 1.7% for the year to date and 13% higher over the past year.
Unlike Woolworths, Coles' growth strategy paid off late last year. The retailer experienced a surge in its value in 2025, particularly following its FY25 results announcement in August.
As Coles moved into 2026, the tide began turning, and positive sentiment from last year lost momentum.
The decline picked up pace after Coles' half-year FY26 results revealed broadly strong growth figures. This included a 3.2% increase in sales revenue and a 7.8% increase in EBITDA. But these were unwound by a 11.3% decline in net profit.
The result missed expectations, failed to match rival Woolworths' results, and spooked investors.
But analysts generally expect Coles to recover through 2026 after its strategic cost-saving initiatives begin to flow through to its financials.
Are Woolworths and Coles shares a buy, sell, or hold?
Despite the latest share movements out of the two supermarkets, analysts aren't expecting Woolworths shares to outperform Coles for much longer.
TradingView data shows that most analysts (12 out of 18) have a hold rating on Woolworths shares, with a maximum target price of $39. That implies a potential 9% upside at the time of writing.
However, data shows that analysts are much more bullish on Coles shares. Of 18 analysts, 15 have a buy or strong buy rating on Coles shares, with a maximum upside of $24.90. That's a 19% upside from the current trading price.
It looks like the supermarket war isn't over yet.
