The CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) share price has been through a tough time over the past two years. As the chart below shows, it's down more than 50% since August 2024.
As a result of this decline, it has fallen below Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) and Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) in market capitalisation terms.
The question now is whether the company is on track to recover some of that lost ground or whether it's going to go even lower. Let's take a look at what analysts think of the company's potential.
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Expert views on the CSL share price
According CMC Invest, there are a number of positive opinions on the business. There are currently seven buy ratings, four hold ratings and no sell ratings.
A price target tells us where analysts think the share price will go in a year – the average price target on CSL shares is $215.13, according to CMC Invest. That implies a possible rise of 52% from where it is today.
UBS is one of the brokers that likes CSL right now, with a price target of $235, implying a possible rise of 66%.
Why UBS likes the ASX healthcare giant
UBS notes that the CSL share price valuation is appealing, though a recovery in the gross profit margin could take a while.
UBS is expecting CSL to prioritise volume over price as it seeks to re-establish its position as the low-cost supplier. This strategy is "likely to weigh on average selling prices, particularly as it seeks to replace tender volumes, most notably with the NHS", according to UBS.
The broker also notes that the interim CEO's track record inspires confidence, but time is needed to turn this around. Gordon Naylor has more than 30 years of CSL experience, having help senior engineering, operational, financial and leadership roles.
UBS noted that Naylor's "deep understanding of the plasma and flu businesses makes him a highly credible choice to lead the company through its current challenges."
It's not a booming market for CSL right now, with global plasma-derived therapy sales only increasing by just 4% in 2025, which is much lower than the historic growth, largely due to the US reimbursement cuts.
But, UBS did highlight underlying demand growth was "solid with Ig volumes up 7-8% and like-for-like sales up 8-9%. CSL's poor results were attributed to the loss of key tenders and poor commercial execution, particularly in the large US market."
The broker notes that:
Our review of competitor results points to market share losses for CSL across Ig, subcutaneous Ig, albumin and hereditary angioedema. The flu business was the sole area of strength, with Seqirus share rising to ~33%.
UBS projects that the business could generate net profit of US$3.4 billion in FY26 and US$3.7 billion in FY27.
