While the broader S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has edged just 5.8% higher this year, the real opportunities may be lurking beneath the surface. Brokers have identified 2 ASX 200 shares that could outpace the benchmark in 2026: Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB) and Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP).
Here's why analysts think these ASX growth shares are gearing up to outperform.
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Mesoblast: high-risk, high-reward biotech
This ASX 200 share is not for the faint-hearted. It's a classic high-risk, high-reward biotech play, that has lost 25% in value so far this year.
However, momentum seems to be finally swinging its way. Mesoblast released its half-year result and an operational update on Friday.
For the six months to 31 December 2025, the ASX 200 share delivered total revenue of US$51.3 million. That's a massive jump from just US$3.2 million a year earlier. While the company still reported a net loss of US$40.2 million, this was an improvement on last year's US$47.9 million loss.
Operationally, the rollout of Mesoblast's leading product Ryoncil continues to build momentum. So far, 49 transplant centres are up and running, with a target of 64 centres covering 94% of US transplants. Ryoncil generated gross sales of US$57 million and net revenue of US$48.7 million after adjustments. The product also delivered gross profit (excluding amortisation) of US$44.2 million during the half.
Mesoblast finished the period with US$130 million in cash and locked in a US$125 million five-year non-dilutive credit facility, giving its balance sheet a serious boost.
But let's be clear — this story still carries real risk. Mesoblast has burned significant capital over years of development. The cell therapy space is competitive. Regulatory delays have tested investor patience before. And even with approvals in hand, commercial execution must deliver.
If momentum continues, the upside could be meaningful. If it stumbles, another nosedive of the ASX 200 share will follow just as quickly.
Bell Potter is bullish on the $3 billion biotech stock. The broker just retained its speculative buy rating and $4.45 price target. Based on its current share price, this points to potential upside of roughly 116% over the next 12 months.
Zip: sharp selloffs, punchy rebounds
The ASX 200 share has been a rollercoaster in recent weeks. A sharp sell-off after its full-year result was followed by punchy a rebound as bargain hunters stepped in. Still, the damage for this year stands at a 45% decline to $1.75 at the time of writing.
On the surface, the numbers of the ASX 200 share weren't bad. Earnings jumped. Guidance ticked higher. Momentum looked solid. But investors zoomed in on the details.
Margins slipped to 7.9% as the faster-growing, lower-margin US business drove more volume. Net bad debts edged up to 1.73% of TTV — still within board targets, but high enough to keep nerves on edge.
Management also flagged that second-half cash EBITDA will mirror the first. In other words, profit growth may stall before it accelerates again.
The deeper issue is confidence. The buy now, pay later space still faces regulatory pressure, rising competition, and the threat of higher credit losses if consumers tighten spending. Those risks haven't gone away. And for an ASX 200 share that's already been heavily sold, every hint of weakness gets punished.
What happens next?
Execution is everything. Zip needs to turn new products into reliable, repeat revenue and prove margins can stabilise.
Not everyone is bearish. UBS remains positive, keeping its buy rating on the ASX 200 shares and a $4.50 price target. That suggests potential upside of 157% over the next 12 months.
