The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price has been through plenty of volatility, though it's slightly down (2%) in 2026 to date, boosting the dividend yield.
Qantas has benefited from strong travel demand over the last few years, and this has helped the ASX travel share to restart paying dividends following the difficulty caused by the COVID-19 impacts.
The airline is sharing some of its profits generated each year in the form of passive income – let's take a look at what's expected of the company in the near term.
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FY26 payout projected
Broker UBS is expecting the business to pay another good dividend in the 2026 financial year.
UBS projects the ASX travel share could increase its annual dividend per share to 35 cents in FY26. At the current Qantas share price, that translates into a cash dividend yield of 3.4%, or 4.9% including the franking credits.
The business is expected to increase its dividend per share in each of the subsequent years, which bodes well for shareholders.
UBS forecasts that the payout could rise to 38 cents per share in FY27, 40 cents per share in FY28, 44 cents per share in FY29, and 43 cents per share in FY30.
That suggests a potential grossed-up dividend yield of approximately 6% in FY30, including franking credits, at the current Qantas share price.
Is this a good time to buy the Qantas share price?
The ASX travel share is a popular investment right now. According to a CommSec collation of analyst ratings, there are 11 buy ratings and four hold ratings.
UBS is one of the brokers that rate the business as a buy and is expecting the business to deliver $1.8 billion of net profit in FY26, $1.9 billion in FY27, $2 billion in FY28, $2.2 billion in FY29, and $2.2 billion in FY30.
The broker noted that the Australian international market is scheduled to grow FY26 capacity by 9% year over year, which is a "strong rate of market growth". There's a question of whether there's pressure on market fares or plane seat occupancy unless passenger demand is "keeping pace".
UBS thinks Qantas' core customers (corporate and premium leisure) will be relatively loyal amid competition. The broker said that Qantas' challenge is not so much competitor pressure, but whether the core Australian customers will grow with it.
The broker has a price target of $11.50, implying a possible rise of around 11% within the next year, plus the dividend return.
