The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price has seen plenty of pain since February, as the below chart shows. Is this time to be greedy or fearful?
The impacts of the Middle East conflict have been wide-reaching, with fuel costs being the most obvious effect.
Qantas is a major fuel user, and it's understandable why the market is feeling cautious on the airline. Let's get into the positives and negatives I'm seeing.
Image source: Getty Images
Negatives
Let's get the bad news out of the way first.
It's hard to say how long the events in the Middle East will affect fuel costs. Even with a complete truce, it could still take some time for fuel access and availability to return to 'normal', whatever the new normal looks like.
There's also a question in my mind of how travel demand will hold up during this period, which is a key element of keeping Qantas planes (fairly) full at the prices it's charging.
The uncertainty appears to have led the leadership to at least delay the $150 million share buyback, which means a delay to shareholders receiving that benefit.
The final negative I'll point out is that inflation could become more widespread than just fuel, which could increase the airline's other costs.
Positives
For investors considering an investment in Qantas, the value is materially more attractive. At the time of writing, it's 8% cheaper than it was at the end of February 2026. It's not as cheap as it was in March, but that's still a sizeable discount.
I'd rather invest in Qantas shares when they're cheaper rather than when the share price is higher.
Another positive is that the business said it has hedged approximately 90% of its FY26 second-half exposure to crude oil, though it is still exposed to movements in the jet refining margin.
Qantas said that it's still seeing strong demand for international travel to Europe, so it has redeployed capacity from the US and its domestic network to increase flights to Paris and Rome.
It has also reduced its domestic capacity in the fourth quarter of FY26 by around 5 percentage points.
The airline is also expecting its domestic and international revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) to grow by approximately 5% in the second half of FY26, which should help offset the cost growth, assuming travel demand remains strong.
According to the projection on CMC Markets, the business is currently forecast to generate earnings per share (EPS) of 93 cents, which puts the Qantas share price at around 10x FY26's estimated earnings.
I do think this is a good time to invest, the valuation is lower and travel demand is strong, but if it fell further, I'd say it's an even better buy.
