WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX:WTC) shares tumbled sharply from their highs in 2025, falling 46% in the past 12 months.
The start of this year has been far from impressive, with Australia's biggest tech stock dropping a further 3.2% to $66.73 at the time of writing.
No wonder investors are asking if WiseTech shares can rebound in 2026?
Let's unpack the tale.
What's still working for WiseTech?
First, there is a real business under the share price angst. WiseTech's flagship CargoWise platform remains a dominant global logistics software suite. It helps freight forwarders and supply-chain operators automate complex cross-border workflows.
Its recurring SaaS model delivers high margins and sticky customers. The company's cloud footprint also gives it a truly worldwide addressable market.
On fundamentals, revenue continues to climb. Management forecasts around 80% top-line growth in FY26 on the back of strong demand, even if margins are forecast to compress slightly amid integration costs.
What's holding it back?
But the plot twist isn't trivial. Investors hate uncertainty, and WiseTech's story has had plenty. The recent leadership and governance drama — including board turnover and regulatory scrutiny — has left a 'governance discount' hanging over WiseTech shares.
There are execution risks too. The company's ambitious acquisition of e2open and rollout of new products have created integration complexities and near-term margin pressure. Guidance for FY26 came in below some market expectations, prompting at least one respected broker to trim its price target.
What the analysts are saying
Despite the headwinds, optimism around WiseTech shares still outweighs pessimism. Broker consensus shows most analysts still peg WiseTech as a buy or strong buy with average 12-month price targets around $110.00, a 65% upside. The most optimistic market watchers see possible gains for 2026 of well over 150% at a maximum share price of $176.
Analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) just upgraded WiseTech shares to an outperform rating with a $108.50 price target, a possible gain in 2026 of 63%. The broker is feeling more confident about WiseTech's business model transition and believes that the company will be able to reshape the logistics industry.
Bell Potter has a buy rating and $100.00 price target on WiseTech Global's shares. This points to a 45% upside from current levels.
The broker notes:
The company's quality is underpinned by a highly predictable business model, with around 95% of its revenue being recurring and a customer churn rate of less than 1%. This provides clear and consistent cash flow, enabling a distinct path to deleverage, with management confident in reducing ND/EBITDA from ~3x in FY26 to 1.7x in FY27.
