Buy, hold, sell: Breville, Catalyst Metals, and Goodman shares

Let's see what analysts at Morgans are saying about these top stocks.

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Key points

  • Breville's shares have dropped around 16% following its FY25 result, but Morgans sees this as a buying opportunity given the company's premium positioning and leverage to the growing coffee category.
  • Catalyst Metals delivered a softer first quarter due to mill maintenance, but Morgans believes FY26 guidance remains achievable despite raising forecast capex to $336 million for exploration and growth.
  • Goodman Group's data centre opportunity offers 5GW of potential capacity, but increasing capital intensity is moderating earnings expectations, leading Morgans to maintain an accumulate rating despite recent weakness.

If you are on the lookout for some new ASX shares for your investment portfolio, then it could be worth listening to what Morgans is saying about the three named below.

Let's see if the broker is bullish, bearish, or something in between:

Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG)

Morgans thinks that recent weakness has created a buying opportunity for investors with this appliance manufacturer's shares.

The broker has a buy rating and $36.05 price target on its shares.

It highlights that the company is well-placed thanks to its premium positioning, product innovation, and leverage to the coffee category. Morgans said:

BRG's share price has retreated ~16% following the FY25 result, which we attribute to expectations of muted earnings growth in FY26 as the group navigates tariff-related margin pressure and an uncertain consumer discretionary backdrop. We view this weakness [as] more warranted for mass-market exposed peers such as Groupe SEB (SK-FRA) and Newell Brands (NWL-US), which have delivered softer updates amid consumer demand pressure (~30% share price decline). However, we believe BRG's premium positioning, strong focus on new product innovation, and leverage to the coffee category position it to better withstand these pressures.

We are encouraged by recent positive updates from peers who share key attributes with BRG, including strong new product innovation and geographic expansion (SharkNinja; SN-US), premium brand positioning (KitchenAid / Whirlpool; WHR-US) and growing coffee category exposure (both). We view recent weakness in BRG as an opportunity to build a position in a high-quality, well-managed business, with structural coffee tailwinds. Upgrade to BUY.

Catalyst Metals Ltd (ASX: CYL)

Another ASX 200 share that the broker has been looking at is gold miner Catalyst Metals.

Morgans remains positive on the company despite its softer than expected first quarter. It has a buy rating and $10.58 price target on its shares. It commented:

CYL delivered a softer than expected operating result for 1Q, driven predominantly mill maintenance, an isolated event. CYL reiterated its FY26 guidance despite 1Q unit costs being outside of stated parameters – we think guidance is still within reach and maintain our preference for CYL within the ~100kozpa producer peer group (CYL, PNR, OBM).

Following the result, we have raised our FY26 capex forecast to A$336m (from A$231m) to reflect updated exploration and non-essential growth capital requirements, primarily relating to the Four Eagles exploration drive (Victoria) and continued development at Plutonic. We reiterate our BUY rating, with a price target of A$10.58ps (previously A$11.00ps).

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

Finally, Morgans isn't quite as positive on this industrial property juggernaut. It has an accumulate rating (between buy and hold) and $36.30 price target on its shares.

The broker is positive on its data centre opportunity but acknowledges that it will result in an increase in capital intensity. It said:

GMG continues to reiterate the immense data centre opportunity ahead – 5GW of potential capacity across key global gateway cities. However, the longer time to develop these assets is seeing capital intensity increase as data centres form a larger proportion of work-in-progress (WIP). All while consensus EPS expectations continue to moderate – consensus now largely forecasts low double digit EPS growth through FY26/27/28 (vs prior expectations of mid double digits). Details of the lease-terms and funding partners remain scant, whilst negotiations progress.

Combined with the 2H skew for FY26 earnings, the likelihood of an FY26 earnings beat declines. That said, we attribute much of the recent share price decline to the shifting narrative around the outlook for hyperscale capex. To this end, we see the recent share price retracement more as an opportunity retaining our ACCUMULATE rating and $36.30/sh price target.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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