Is there opportunity in 2026 outside the big four bank shares?

There is always plenty of coverage on the big four bank shares in Australia – and for good reason. 

These four banks sit inside the top 6 largest companies in Australia weighted by market capitalisation. 

Earlier in December I covered the success of Australia And New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) shares in 2025 compared to its peers. 

But what about the ASX bank shares outside the big four?

Here is an overview of how some of the others have performed. 

A tough year for bank shares

Across the board, it has been overall a down year for bank shares. 

Starting with Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN), which has fallen more than 20% since the start of the year. 

That included two horror days of trading in November. 

On 11 November, shares lost 8.5% following the release of the company's first-quarter (Q1 FY 2026) results. 

Two weeks later, on 25 November, shares fell another 7.4%. 

Elsewhere, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has also struggled in 2025. 

While it does offer banking services, it is primarily involved in investment and commercial banking and asset management, with Macquarie now in the top 50 global asset managers.

Its share price is down more than 9% since the start of the year.

Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ) is one of Australia's largest regional banks still operating independently of the 'Big Four' banks. 

Its share price has also faced volatility this year, and is down approximately 2.7% year to date. 

Finally, Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO), which focuses on lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), has fallen just over 7%. 

Most notably, in April, Judo Bank's share price crashed 19% after releasing its third-quarter update. 

Which has the most upside in 2026?

While 2025 has been rough on these bank shares, there is one drawing positive attention from experts. 

Judo Bank is tipped by brokers to rebound in 2026. 

It appears this may have already begun to be priced in, as its share price is up 12% over the last month since its AGM.

Macquarie has an outperform rating and $1.90 price target on Judo Bank shares. 

This indicates an upside of almost 11% from yesterday's closing price of $1.72. 

There are other brokers even more bullish. 

UBS placed a $2.20 price target on Judo Bank shares in November, and TradingView currently has a consensus price target of $2.15.

These targets indicate an upside of between 25 – 28%.