With 2026 fast approaching, now's a great time to think about buying a few S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares that look well-placed to outperform in the new year. With a particular eye out for companies that also pay dividends.
With that in mind, we look at three such large-cap passive income shares Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expects should deliver gains of 7% to 12% atop their attractive dividend yields.
Two agribusiness ASX 200 shares to buy today
First up, we have agribusiness Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD).
Elders shares closed on Thursday trading for $7.33 each. That sees the Elders share price up 2% in 2025. The ASX 200 share also trades on a partly franked 4.9% dividend yield.
Looking to the year ahead, Macquarie has an outperform rating on Elders shares.
According to the broker:
Optimism from the company re FY26 outlook evident at recent result with first 6 weeks of trading +30% vs pcp (pre Delta, EBIT basis) on improvement in seasonal conditions. Delta adds c$40m of EBIT on our forecasts and underpins our expectation for EBIT growth of 49% next 12 months.
15% return on capital target in focus with benefit from streamlined NWC, less bolt-on M&A activity and as come to end of SysMod transformation programme. Medium-term, we think ELD offers good earnings growth potential with cyclical rebound, Delta synergies (conservative) and further organic growth.
Macquarie has a price target of $8.25 on Elders shares. That represents a potential upside of more than 12% from current levels, not including dividends.
Which brings us to the second ASX 200 share to buy that Macquarie expects to outperform, rival Aussie agribusiness Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC).
Graincorp shares closed on Thursday trading for $8.19 each. This puts the Graincorp share price up 12% in 2025. Graincorp stock also trades on a market-beating, fully franked 5.9% dividend yield.
Macquarie noted:
GNC balance sheet/returns metrics compare well to peers. Particularly in Ag sector, a strong balance sheet affords flexibility to sustain investment requirements and capital returns even volatile cycle. GNC has demonstrated these characteristics over the past 2-3 years as grain prices and earnings have fallen from peak levels.
We expect FY26 EBITDA -1% vs pcp on fall in east coast grain vols (albeit remain near record levels) amid constrained margin environment. Recent corporate activity across broader infrastructure space a reminder of value inherent in GNC assets.
Macquarie has an $8.80 price target on Graincorp shares. That represents a potential upside of more than 7% from yesterday's closing price, not including those upcoming dividends.
Also tipped to outperform
The third ASX 200 share you may wish to buy today in preparation for the new year is Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI).
Shares in the mining and infrastructure solutions provider – which is also the world's largest commercial explosives manufacturer – closed on Thursday trading for $24.01.
This sees the Orica share price up a whopping 45% in 2025. Orica shares also trade on a 2.4% unfranked dividend yield.
And Macquarie expects more outperformance from Orica in the year ahead.
According to the broker:
We fct a positive earnings outlook (10% CAGR eps next 3 years) coupled with a strong bal sheet. At 17.5x FY27e, PE ORI trades at 4% PE rel discount to ASX100 vs ~4% L/T premium and a slight discount to DNL's 18.1x (FY27 first year post-fert for DNL). Gold is ORI's largest end market commodity (26% of rev) with exposure via explosives, cyanide and Axis (latter more exploration driven).
At FY25 result ORI lifted medterm earnings growth targets for Specialty Mining Chemicals (SMC) to high-single digit EBIT growth (mid-single digits prior) & Digital to middouble digits (low-double digits). Other focus areas inc duration of CF supply outage at Yazoo city: force majeure declared and ORI has lined up alternate supply but likely additional cost.
Commod price evolution (gold prices likely supported near term) and activity drivers across Nth Am Q&C, mining and coal sectors also in focus.
Macquarie has an outperform rating on Orica shares with a $25.95 price target. That's more than 8% Thursday's close. And again, it doesn't include the upcoming 2026 dividends.
