There was a time when Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG) shares could seemingly do no wrong. Between January 2016 and July 2021, the ASX 200 appliance maker soared a massive 445%, making its long-term investors very wealthy in the process.
But then the company hit a major snag. In the 12 months to June 2022, Breville shares lost almost half of their value and stagnated over the subsequent 12 months as well.
As it stands today ($29.62 at the time of writing), the Breville share price is down 11.3% over the past 12 months, and has lost about 16.5% of its value since December last year. Its five-year gain sits at just under 20%, a rather paltry performance, considering the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained about 30% over that same span.
To be fair, Breville has actually had a fairly successful year, if we ignore its share price performance. Back in August, the company posted revenue growth of 10.9% to $1.7 billion for its full 2025 financial year. That growth hit double-digits across all three global markets that Breville operates in, too.
Net profits after tax were up an even more impressive 14.6% to $135.9 million, which allowed Breville to increase its full-year dividend by 12.1% to a fully franked 37 cents per share.
Given this company's sagging share price performance of late, but also with its rather rosy-looking FY2025 results, many investors might be wondering where Breville shares are heading next.
Well, fortunately for those investors, analysts at Macquarie have recently run the ruler over this appliance maker.
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Does Macquarie rate Breville shares as a buy today?
Macquarie liked what they saw. Analysts gave Breville shares an 'outperform' rating, alongside a 12-month share price target of $39.20. If realised, that would see investors enjoy a potential upside of about 32.3%.
Macquarie's optimism is derived from what it sees as positive trends in sales of coffee, as well as appliances from other manufacturers, mainly De Longhi. One of Breville's most important product categories is coffee and espresso machines.
As a result of these projections, Macquarie has "forecast for a 10%-plus revenue CAGR [compounded annual growth rate] FY25-FY28E". Indeed, Macquarie is predicting that Breville shares will be able to grow adjusted earnings per share (EPS) from the 93 cents achieved in FY2025 to 95.3 cents by FY2026, $1.096 by FY2027 and then to $1.246 by FY2028. That would represent growth rates of 2.5%, 15% and 13.7% respectively.
That earnings growth will, at least according to the analysts, support higher dividends too. Macquarie has Breville paying out 39.1 cents per share over FY2026, 44.9 cents by FY2027 and 51.1 cents by FY2028.
No doubt investors and owners of Breville shares will be pleased to hear these impressive numbers. But we'll have to wait and see to know for sure whether Macquarie is on the money here.
