Buy, hold, sell: Collins Foods, Imdex, Treasury Wine shares

Let's see what Morgans is saying about these shares.

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Key points

  • Collins Foods impressed Morgans with strong first-half results, driven by operational excellence and favourable tax and depreciation impacts, retaining an accumulate rating and a slightly increased price target of $12.40 due to optimistic full-year guidance.
  • Despite potential earnings per share downgrades following recent acquisitions, Morgans remains optimistic about Imdex, noting its strong base business performance and reaffirming an accumulate rating with a $3.70 target, focusing on long-term growth prospects in mining technology.
  • Treasury Wine Estates faces challenges with a substantial non-cash goodwill impairment of its US assets, leading Morgans to maintain a hold rating and $6.10 target amid ongoing market difficulties, anticipating further updates that could influence the outlook.

A new month is here and what better time to make some new additions to an investment portfolio.

But which ASX shares should you buy?

To narrow things down, let's see how Morgans rates the three popular shares named below. Here's what the broker is saying:

Collins Foods Ltd (ASX: CKF)

Morgans was pleased with this quick service restaurant operator's performance during the first half.

It notes that its profits were a strong beat thanks to strong execution and a lower-than-expected depreciation charge and tax rate.

In response to its results, the broker has retained its accumulate rating with an improved price target of $12.40. It said:

CKF's 1H26 NPAT was 12% higher than forecast and 30% up yoy. The strong headline beat was partly a function of solid operational execution and a return to positive LFL sales growth, but was significantly boosted by a lower-than-expected depreciation charge and tax rate. EBITDA was up 11% and 1% higher than forecast.

The value proposition inherent in the KFC brand has allowed it to outperform peers in a competitive and challenging QSR market in Australia and continental Europe. 1H26 margins improved, although we anticipate some downward pressure in Australia in the second half as commodity price inflation resumes. CKF upgraded its full year guidance. We have increased our NPAT estimates by 3% in each of the next three forecast years and our target price rises by 1% to $12.40.

Imdex Ltd (ASX: IMD)

This mining technology company has caught the eye of Morgans after announcing a couple of acquisitions.

And while it notes that these acquisitions may lead to earnings per share downgrades, the broker urges investors to not focus on this and instead to focus on the strength of the base business.

As a result, it has reaffirmed its accumulate rating with a $3.70 price target. It said:

The acquisition of two predominantly sensors businesses, in our view, is preferred against acquiring purely software businesses. IMD has paid a full price for ALT and MSI (~15x CY24 EBITDA), though with 55-60% exposed to mining exploration, both should be seeing substantial growth. Perhaps more importantly, IMD has now cleansed P&L costs below EBITDA which will likely trigger EPS downgrades. However, this disregards the strength of the base business, for which volumes have sequentially improved through 2Q, notwithstanding usual seasonal softness.

We cut our EPS forecasts by 5% in FY26 as we incorporate ALT and MSI and higher D&A, interest and tax. We also fully consolidate Datarock and Krux. In FY27 and FY28, cuts to our forecasts are marginal (1-2%) as we increase our revenue growth assumption in FY27 from +7% to +10%. Target price to $3.70 (from $3.80). Accumulate

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)

This wine giant released an update this week which revealed that it was impairing the goodwill of its US assets.

While it was disappointed by this, it wasn't overly surprised. In light of this, it has retained its hold rating and $6.10 price target and eagerly awaits a trading update later this month. It said:

TWE has announced that it expects to recognise a non-cash impairment of at least all the goodwill of its US based assets (A$697.4m). While this is disappointing, it isn't a complete surprise given the company has new CEO and the US market remains challenging, in fact, category trends have deteriorated further. A further update on trading will be provided in mid-December.

We suspect that trading has been weaker than expected and wouldn't be surprised if consensus is too high. The 1H26 result will be particularly weak. We have made large revisions to our forecasts and stress that earnings uncertainty remains high. Consequently, we maintain a HOLD rating.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Collins Foods and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Imdex and Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Collins Foods. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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