Back in November of 2021, it seemed Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares could do no wrong.
The company had emerged relatively unscathed from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Profits were healthy, the dividends were flowing, and just a few months prior, the 'Fresh Food People's' stock had hit a new record high of over $42 a share.
What a difference four years can make.
Today, Woolworths investors are at the tail end of the worst two years the company has faced since the Masters hardware debacle ended a decade ago.
As it currently stands, Woolworths shares are languishing at just $27.85 each (at the time of writing) after hitting a new 52-week (and seven-year) low of $25.51 last month.
Nothing seems to have gone right for this veteran supermarket operator of late. Last year's CEO transition was less than seamless for one. For another, the company has continued to be outshone by its arch-rival Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL). The market found the latest set of full-year results, released back in late August, particularly disturbing. The company's shares were down almost 15% on the day they came out.
Long-term Woolworths investors' pain has been exacerbated by the valuation premium Woolworths shares used to enjoy. This gave the company a higher ledge to fall off when sentiment turned. It used to be common for Woolworths shares to trade on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 35. Today, its unadjusted earnings multiple is under 24.
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How much have Woolworths shares lost over the past four years?
But time to put some numbers to Woolworths' pain. If you picked up Woolworths shares exactly four years ago, you would have been able to buy them for $40.22 (the closing share price on 19 November 2021).
If an investor had bought $5,000 worth of Woolworths shares back then, that parcel would be worth just $3,462.20 today. That's not factoring in brokerage or other costs.
That's a loss worth 30.76%. Ouch.
Of course, Woolworth shares have also paid out dividends over the past four years, which somewhat mitigates these losses. Those dividends amounted to a collective $4.24 per share, meaning our $5,000 would have attracted approximately $527.10 in dividends. Thus, we are left with a final figure of $3,989.30 from our original $5,000. A loss of 20.21%.
So I can conclude by saying that 'thank goodness I didn't buy Woolworths shares four years ago'. Hopefully, the next four years will be kinder to this ASX 200 veteran.
